076
FXUS62 KMHX 011849
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
249 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry high pressure will build in from the north the rest
of today and remain over the area through Wednesday. The high
then shifts offshore Thursday through this weekend with
oppressive heat and humidity returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Mon...Front has now pushed offshore with just some
scattered showers remaining over land and most of the heavy rain
offshore. High res guidance has poorly handled the anomalously
cool airmass coming in behind the front, and have had to lower
temps and dewpoints for the rest of today. Temps will rebound
into the mid to upper 70s this afternoon as the clearing line
heads east, with only a few of the sunnier spots touching 80.

Cool high pressure will continue to build in from the north
tonight with skies remaining mostly clear. Though there will be
a little bit of wind, especially along the coast, expect strong
cooling tonight which will allow for temps to dip down into the
upper 50s to lower 60s inland and upper 60s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Mon...A much deserved seasonable, sunny, and low
humidity day expected tomorrow with high pressure continuing to
ridge into the region from the north. High temps will be several
degrees below normal with readings reaching the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Mon...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Cooler than average temps are forecast on Wed

- Oppressive heat and humidity return this weekend

Wed...Upper troughing will be located offshore at the start of
the period and continue to push E`wards further into the
Atlantic while upper ridging continues to build over the
Southeast Wed. At the surface, high pressure gradually slides
E`wards into the Atlantic on Wed turning winds to the E and then
SE by Wed afternoon as fair weather continues across the area.
Highs get into the 80s with lows in the the 60s to low 70s.
With dewpoints forecast to be in the 60s, it will feel much
more comfortable outside through midweek.

Thurs through the weekend... Our most impactful weather likely
occurs at the end of the week and into the weekend as oppressive
heat and humidity sets up across the Southeast once again.
Upper ridging will remain overhead into next weekend as any
upper level troughs struggle to dig S`wards. At the surface,
high pressure ridging will continue to push further offshore
through the end of the week allowing return flow and moisture
return to resume across ENC. As mentioned above, temps will
steadily warm into the weekend allowing oppressive heat and
humidity to return to ENC starting on Fri and persisting into
the end of the weekend. Otherwise climatological avg precip
chances will resume starting this weekend as well with at least
a chance for some shower and tstm development each afternoon
along the seabreeze.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18Z Tue/...
As of 3 PM Mon...Key messages: VFR conditions will develop by
evening and gusty winds will diminish early this evening.

Occasional MVFR ceilings and NE winds gusting to 20 kt will
prevail at the TAF sites until late today. High pressure will
build south over eastern NC tonight and Tuesday resulting in VFR
conditions and light winds developing early this evening and
continuing Tuesday. Overnight there will be enough low level
mixing to preclude fog while the low levels are forecast to be
too dry to support low stratus cloud formation despite easterly
flow.

Southwesterly winds this morning quickly veer northerly and then
northeasterly behind the front, gusting to 15-20 kt through the
afternoon.

LONG TERM /Tue night through Saturday/...
As of 3 PM Mon... Primarily VFR conditions forecast through the
period with light winds as high pressure settles in across the
Eastern Seaboard.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 3 PM Mon...SCAs will continue through most of tonight as
strong NE persists in the wake of a cold front. Winds are
currently N/NE at 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts, and are
expected to continue at this strength for the first half of
tonight. Thereafter, winds will begin to weaken and become
mostly NE 10-20 kts by tomorrow morning.

Seas have climbed quickly in response to the strong NE winds and
remain 4-6 ft (highest north of Cape Hatteras). Seas will remain
nearly steady through around midnight, and then will gradually
diminish overnight, becoming 3-5 ft tomorrow.

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
As of 315 PM Mon...Mostly benign boating conditions are
forecast for the period. High pressure ridging continues to
gradually push E`wards across the area Tuesday night, relaxing
the gradient with winds easing to 5-15 kts while becoming more
E`rly by Wed morning. Winds continue to remain light and veer to
the SE and eventually the S on Thurs as ridging becomes
centered to the E. Seas will gradually lower as well Wed and
Thurs down to 2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ131-
     230.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135-152-154-
     156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...JME/RCF
MARINE...SGK/RCF