935
FXUS62 KMHX 280731
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
331 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure then builds in from the north Friday into
Saturday with another front approaching late Sunday through
Monday. High pressure once again builds over the area from the
north on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Key message today: A little cooler and
slightly less humid across the northern coastal plain. Coverage
of showers and thunderstorms will be less than on Thursday.

The "front" which crossed the area last night was not much of a
front in a literal sense as there will be very little change in
temperature and dewpoint across most of the area. It will be a
little drier in that coverage of diurnal showers and
thunderstorms will less than on Thursday. Easterly low level
flow will be prominent today in the wake of the aforementioned
front. The high res models indicate that dewpoints could mix
down into the low to mid 60s over the northern coastal plain
this afternoon while remaining in the mid 70s across the
remainder of the area and depicted this in the wx grids. Highs
will range from the mid 80s beaches to the upper 80s to lower
90s inland.

The consensus of the guidance is indicating scattered showers
and thunderstorms, especially this afternoon and mostly
along/south of Highway 70. Continued with the higher NBM PoPs
which are around 40% as opposed to the model MOS which is only
around 20%. Most of the CAMs supported the higher PoPs of the
NBM. The lack of shear should preclude severe storms but with
MLCAPES of 1500-2000 J/kg and PW values around 2" torrential
downpours will occur with local rainfall in excess of 1"
possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Tonight will be interesting as the models
are forecasting an increase in dewpoints and PW area wide as the
low level flow veers to the SE. This could result in widely
scattered showers and storms forming over the gulfstream then
moving northward into coastal eastern NC especially east of
Highway 17. Thus will have slight chance PoPs to account for
this as not expecting coverage to be that high. Muggy lows in
the low to mid 70s are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...Once again the heat and humidity will be
the main story in the long term to start as high pressure
ridging builds overhead this weekend. Heat related impacts will
be a threat most afternoons through Sunday, with the most
oppressive heat potential both Saturday and Sunday. Scattered
diurnal activity is expected through Sunday, with better
chances for precip arriving Sunday night and into Monday as
another front moves in. Expecting dry conditions from Tuesday
into the end of the period.

Saturday through Monday... The heat and humidity return in full
force this weekend as high pressure ridging restrengthens over
the area. High temps will generally range from the upper 80s
along the immediate coast and OBX to the mid to upper 90s across
the Coastal Plain. Combined with the high humidity across ENC
heat indices will reach 100 to potentially 110 this weekend.
With lows only getting down into the 70s each night, there will
not be much relief overnight either resulting in an increased
threat for excessive heat.

Otherwise diurnally driven showers and storms will be possible
on Sat with increased precip chances on Sunday afternoon through
Monday with the approach of a cold front. This cold front will
track across the region on Monday with the precip threat
gradually ending from northwest to southeast Mon night. Given
the forecasted cloudcover and precip chances on Mon temps will
also be lower with Highs only getting into the 80s.

Tuesday through midweek...Behind this front next week the heat and
humidity looks to break finally with dry conditions and near normal
temps expected.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 330 AM Fri...As has been the case most of this past week,
forecasting the potential for nocturnal sub VFR conditions in
fog and stratus remains difficult early this morning and again
overnight. Consensus of guidance is for a mixture of fog and low
clouds producing a period of MVFR to Friday. Latest obs show
variable winds N-SW 5-10 kt with seas 2-3 ft. Winds are expected
to be around 10 kt or less becoming NE late tonight, becoming
easterly around 10-20 kt on Friday. Seas will be around 2-4 ft.
IFR conditions 8-12Z this morning. This could repeat overnight
as low level moisture increases as the flow veers to the SE.
Outside of this, expecting VFR conditions with light winds.
Widely scattered afternoon storms could produce brief sub VFR
conditions especially at EWN and OAJ.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Thurs... Diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm
activity is forecast across ENC on Fri and Sat with some periods
of sub-VFR conditions possible each afternoon and evening.
Another cold front will arrive late Sun and bring an increased
chance of sub- VFR conditions through Monday before VFR
conditions potentially return on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 330 AM Fri...High pressure builds in from the north today
into tonight. Light variable winds early this morning will
become NE and increase to 10-20 kt late this morning and
afternoon, becoming E late in the day. Tonight E winds 10-15 kt
become SE. Seas will 2-4 ft through tonight.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Thurs... Decent boating conditions forecast
through Sat before a cold front tracks across our waters Sun
night into Monday bringing widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity as well as elevated winds and seas.

As a ridge of high pressure gradually builds in from the north on
Fri, northeast to easterly winds at 5-15 kts and 2 to 4 ft seas
will persist across our waters into Fri night. As high pressure
ridging gradually slides offshore winds will turn to a SE`rly
direction on Sat. Winds will continue to gradually turn Sat
night into Sun to a SW`rly direction while also increasing to
10-20 kts as a cold front approaches from the west bringing our
next threat for unsettled conditions across the waters Sun night
into Mon. Seas will remain around 2 to 4 ft through the rest of
the period, though would not be shocked to see some 5 ft seas
near the Gulf Stream waters Sun night into Mon as the front
track across the area.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...JME/RCF
MARINE...JME/SK/TL/RCF