135
FXUS63 KMKX 140257
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
957 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler, less humid Friday and Saturday.

- Rain chances return late Saturday into Sunday.

- Warm weather expected Sunday through mid next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 955 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Dry weather expected for the remainder of the evening, with
showers and thunderstorms confined south of the WI / IL border.
Despite clouds clearing out faster than prior expectations, the
forecast for lows in the mid 50s to around 60 remains on track
at this time.

Sheppard

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 250 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Tonight through Saturday:

A cold front is moving through the area this afternoon.
Widespread cloud cover ahead of this feature has greatly limited
any potential for thunderstorms over southern Wisconsin, and any
severe weather threat is expected to be confined to northern
Illinois and points south. A few showers will remain possible
through late afternoon/early evening, with skies clearing
tonight as drier air builds into the area.

A couple of nice days are ahead for Friday and Saturday, as high
pressure moves through the area. Highs will be in the mid to
upper 70s both days, with lows in the 50s. A weak backdoor cold
front/enhanced lake breeze is expected tomorrow afternoon or
evening as the surface high moves far enough east to support
northeasterly synoptic flow. Look for temps to quickly fall
into the 60s near the lake as the push of northeasterly winds
arrives.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 250 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Saturday night through Thursday:

Rain chances will start to increase Saturday night as southerly
flow develops and transports better moisture northward into the
area, and a shortwave moves eastward from the Central Plains.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected later Saturday
evening into Sunday morning as this feature moves through.

A building ridge over the southeastern US will support a
sustained flow of warm and moist air northward into the region
from Sunday into at least the middle portion of next week. This
will support highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, with muggy
overnight lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. There will be low
(20-30%) chances for precipitation during this time, but suspect
that the majority of this will remain to our west and north,
closer to a quasi-stationary frontal zone over Minnesota and
northwestern Wisconsin.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 955 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR is expected through the next 24 hours, with ongoing showers
and thunderstorms confined south of the WI / IL border. Mostly
clear skies tonight, aside from some 10,000 ft or higher
ceilings by the IL border associated with convection further
south.

Weak northwest winds expected overnight. Friday morning through
Friday afternoon, a backdoor front is expected to develop off
Lake Michigan and sweep westward. As this boundary passes,
expect a sharp shift in wind directions from northwest to
northeast (timing shown in TAFs). This front is expected to
sweep through the entire region, including KJVL and KMSN, by
the mid to late afternoon. No precip is expected from it.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 250 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Winds will continue to turn northwesterly as a cold front passes
through the lake. Thunderstorms are expected at times this
afternoon and evening over the southern quarter of the lake, where
a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect. Winds will be northerly
on Friday behind departing low pressure and ahead of an
approaching high. Winds will be lighter on Saturday, picking
back up out of the south on Sunday as the high pushes east of
the area. Winds and waves may reach Small Craft Advisory levels
at times early next week.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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