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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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974 FXUS64 KMOB 280506 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1206 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Regional radar mosaic is currently increasing convection along the coast that should persist while moving slowly eastward through the overnight hours into Friday morning. These showers and storms will then push inland throughout the day. Temporary reductions in visibilities and gusty winds will occur with the strongest storms. Light southwesterly to light and variable winds will otherwise occur overnight into Friday increasing from the south near 10 knots in the afternoon. /22 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ .New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 408 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 An active summertime pattern will continue through the night and into the day on Friday. Subtle troughing remains in place over the southeastern US with upper ridging to our west. The main player at the surface is a weak surface trough/boundary that is currently located along the I-65 corridor. We are currently in a brief hiatus from showers and storms this afternoon; however, we expect activity to perk up as we approach sunset along the I-65 corridor. Storms should push more offshore overnight along the typical land breeze circulation. Friday will be mostly a rinse and repeat of today with mid-morning storms along the coast transitioning to storms along the gradually drifting surface boundary by the afternoon. The main threats could be a locally damaging wind gust and heavy rainfall with the strongest of storms. Temperatures will remain warm but given the potential for showers and storms earlier in the day, temperatures will not go full on surface of the sun. That heat comes later in the week. Expect heat indices to range in the 100 to 105 range during the afternoon tomorrow. BB/03 SHORT TERM... (Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 408 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 An unsettled weather pattern will continue across our region through the weekend. A weak upper level low/inverted trough axis will remain oriented across the northern Gulf Coast region on Friday before shifting further southwest into the Gulf and gradually becoming diffuse Friday night into Saturday. Upper level ridging will then gradually build eastward across much of the deep south through the remainder of the weekend. A plume of deep layer moisture will remain entrenched over our forecast area through the weekend. The combination of the deep moisture and available instability will support a continued good chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, with the greatest coverage expected during the daytime hours. A few storms could pulse strong at times with gusty winds/frequent lightning/heavy rainfall. Outside of storm development, temperatures will remain hot through the weekend, especially by Sunday as the ridge builds overhead. Highs in the lower to mid 90s along with dewpoints in the 70s will likely result in potential heat impacts by Sunday afternoon where maximum heat indices could range between 105-111 degrees. A Heat Advisory may become necessary again late this weekend. /21 LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 408 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Upper level high pressure will continue to strengthen and build eastward across the Mississippi Valley and Deep South through most of next week. Hot and humid conditions are expected each day Monday-Thursday with highs reaching into the 90s and maximum heat index values potentially reaching up to 105-110 degrees each afternoon. Additional Heat Advisories may become necessary. Diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity will continue each day through the extended period with plentiful moisture and instability in place, but overall coverage may trend more isolated to scattered nature Tuesday-Thursday as the ridge builds into our region. /21 MARINE... Issued at 408 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 A moderate westerly to southwesterly flow is expected to continue through Friday, with winds decreasing to light by Saturday. For Saturday night and into early next week, a light diurnal flow pattern develops, with west to northwest flow developing each night and a southwesterly flow developing each afternoon. Conditions have been favorable each morning for waterspouts given the active pattern and surface boundary. This will likely continue with any storms that develop near the coast on Friday. BB/03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 92 76 94 76 95 75 93 / 40 60 20 60 40 60 30 50 Pensacola 79 91 78 93 78 93 78 91 / 40 50 30 70 50 70 30 50 Destin 80 90 80 92 79 92 79 91 / 40 50 30 70 50 70 30 50 Evergreen 74 91 73 93 73 95 72 95 / 20 70 20 70 30 60 20 50 Waynesboro 73 93 73 93 73 95 72 97 / 20 60 20 70 30 40 10 40 Camden 73 91 73 91 73 94 71 94 / 20 70 20 70 30 40 10 40 Crestview 74 94 75 96 74 96 74 95 / 30 60 20 70 40 70 30 50 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob