Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
205 FXUS64 KMOB 241753 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1253 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 General VFR conditions with local MVFR level CIGs/VISBYs in isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. A few rainshowers in the late night into morning hours along the coast are possible, in MVFR level CIGs. This convection will mix out as the the boundary layer increases with the day`s heating, so am not expecting it to last much past mid morning. General west to southwest winds 5 to 10 knots expected through the forecast, with a drop-off to around 5 knots or less overnight. /16 && .NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 An upper level ridge currently stretches southeast over the northern Gulf of Mexico, north-central Gulf coast, with a mean upper level trough along the East Coast. A weak cold front continues to move south over the forecast area, with isolated convection along and south. Instability has been limited so far, with minimal lightning on the lighting plots, but an increase has been noticed at noontime. Am expecting an increase in lightning as temperatures rise and instability increases (guidance indicates MLCapes rising into the 2500-3000J/kg range as temperatures rise to well above seasonal norms). DCapes are modest (500-700J/jg), so strong to marginally severe pulse thunderstorms are possible. A increase in moisture levels is also indicated with the southward moving front (precipitable h20 levels rising into the 2.0"-2.2" range). The combination of hot temperatures and high moisture levels will create heat indices in the 105-110F range over the forecast area today. Heat Indices of 108F+ are still indicated over areas south of a Wayne County to Okaloosa County line for this afternoon, so am not adjusting the current heat advisory. Tonight through Tuesday, guidance is advertising moisture levels dropping as northerly flow on the west side of the East Coast upper trough re-asserts itself, with precipitable h20 levels of 1.5"-1.7" along and south of a Waynesboro to Crestview line, 1.0" to 1.5" north. Guidance is also advertising the upper ridge building a bit. An increase in temperatures from increased subsidence Tuesday (high temperatures in the 95-100F range well inland from the coast, 90-95 closer to and along the coast) is expected. Even with the drop in moisture levels, Heat Indices for Tuesday will see an uptick, especially along and south of a Butler to Florala line (107-112F). 100-107F are expected north. Am planning on adding Choctaw, Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, and Covington to today`s Heat Advisory coverage for coming package. Also, with the better moisture levels closer to the coast, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are again possible in the afternoon over and south of a Waynesboro to Opp line, with an inland moving seabreeze of the Gulf the initiator. South of the coast, overnight/morning showers and thunderstorms remain possible, so have left isolated to scattered convection in the forecast. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 97 77 94 74 93 75 93 / 20 30 10 50 50 60 30 40 Pensacola 79 95 79 93 78 92 77 92 / 30 30 20 50 40 60 40 50 Destin 80 91 81 91 79 90 79 90 / 30 30 20 50 40 60 40 40 Evergreen 72 99 73 95 72 93 72 95 / 10 30 20 60 40 60 20 40 Waynesboro 74 100 74 96 72 94 72 96 / 10 30 20 60 40 50 20 30 Camden 72 98 72 96 71 93 72 95 / 0 10 10 50 40 50 20 30 Crestview 75 99 75 96 72 94 72 95 / 20 30 20 60 40 60 30 50 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ALZ051>053-055- 056-059-060-261>266. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052-059-261>266. FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for FLZ201>206. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob