334
FXUS64 KMOB 231745
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1245 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions prevail at the terminals. Winds turn southwesterly
through the afternoon hours with light and variable winds
generally expected overnight. Showers and storms will develop by
late Monday morning across our inland counties, but will likely
not impact the terminals until late in the afternoon. 07/mb

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/

New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected over the area through tonight. Calm
or light and variable winds become southerly to southwesterly at
5 to 10 knots this afternoon. /22


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 505 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The eastern periphery of the large upper ridge over the southern
half of the U.S. will weaken through tonight as an upper shortwave
passing over the Great Lakes region digs southward over the
eastern states. Prior to the arrival of the upper shortwave, large
scale subsidence and lack of moisture will result in dry and hot
weather conditions again today.

Rain chances enter back into the forecast on Monday as a surface
low pressure area associated with the shortwave moving eastward
across New England on Monday sends a weak cold front southward
into the Tennessee Valley and northern portions of Georgia and
Alabama before becoming nearly stationary and slowly dissipates.
While the front is not expected to enter into our area, a plume of
increased moisture ahead of this boundary will gradually sink
southward with deep layer moisture improving that will bring our
precipitable water values as high 2 inches in the afternoon. This
moisture combined with convergence along the sea-breeze and
potential outflow boundaries will aid in the development of
scattered showers and storms in the afternoon. A strong storm or
two cannot be completely ruled out Monday afternoon, but we are
not expecting any organized severe storms at this time.

High temperatures today and Monday will reach the mid to upper 90s
(3-8 degrees above normal) inland and low 90s at the coast. Heat
indices across much of the area today will range from 100 to 105
degrees, and from 103 to 108 degrees on Monday. Lows will be very
warm and humid and only lower into the mid 70s inland with upper
70s and low 80s along the coast, or 5-10 degrees above normal. A
MODERATE risk of rip currents continues through the period. /22

SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Upper level ridging remains centered over the Desert Southwest on
Tuesday with the local area lingering on the eastern periphery of
this feature. Meanwhile, a large upper trough to our east moves
out over the western Atlantic. This pattern places the local area
in a light northwesterly flow aloft on Tuesday with southwesterly
winds prevailing at the surface. Guidance continues to indicate a
plume of enhanced moisture that will be in place across most of
the area Tuesday morning. It`s possible that this moisture plume
could get nudged further south and become confined to southern
portions of the area during the day Tuesday as high pressure
builds slightly over the Appalachians. While there`s still some
discrepancy with how far south this moisture gradients sags,
guidance is suggesting that we could see some drier air move into
northern and especially northeastern portions of the area on
Tuesday. This drier air could help to limit rain chances in these
areas, but for now have maintained scattered showers and storms
across the area for Tuesday afternoon. Any showers and storms that
develop on Tuesday are expected to follow a diurnal pattern with
convection dissipating through the early evening hours.

The bigger concern for Tuesday will be very hot temperatures as
highs climb into the middle and upper 90s in most locations.
Tuesday is still looking like the best potential for seeing a Heat
Advisory as heat index values are currently forecast to reach to
around 105-100 degrees. However, we will continue to monitor for
this potential as drier air across portions of the area would have
impacts on those heat index values. /14

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Rain chances will be on the rise as we head into the middle of
this week as a weak northwesterly flow prevails. Deep layer
moisture will improve during this time as the surface ridging over
the Appalachians slides east and the upper ridging retreats
further west. A more potent shortwave trough is also expected to
within the mean flow, with it slowly pivoting across the
Southeastern US on Wednesday and Thursday. The lower heights and
increasing moisture combined with another weak boundary that sags
down into the Southeast will result in scattered to numerous
showers and storms on Wednesday and Thursday, with isolated to
scattered PoPs persisting into the overnight hours. By Friday, the
shortwave aloft exits to the east and very weak upper ridging
attempts to build back into the region. This will reduce rain
chances somewhat Friday and Saturday with much of the area seeing
scattered showers and storms both days. It will still be rather
warm and humid during the week with high temperature generally
topping out in the lower and middle 90s. Heat index values will
likely be just below Heat Advisory criteria during the middle to
latter part of next week. /14

MARINE...
Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

No hazardous impacts expected as a light southwesterly to
westerly flow will occur throughout next week. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  96  76  96  76  94  74  92 /   0  40  10  30  10  50  40  60
Pensacola   78  94  79  95  80  93  77  92 /   0  40  10  40  20  60  40  70
Destin      80  91  80  93  80  91  79  90 /  10  30  10  40  20  50  40  60
Evergreen   73  96  73  98  73  95  72  93 /  10  40  10  40  10  60  40  60
Waynesboro  74  96  74  99  74  96  72  94 /  10  40  10  30  10  60  40  50
Camden      73  95  73  97  73  95  72  93 /  20  30   0  30  10  60  40  50
Crestview   73  97  74  99  74  96  72  94 /   0  50  10  40  10  60  30  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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