935
AWUS01 KWNH 040712
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-041045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0552
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Areas affected...Central and Eastern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040710Z - 041045Z

SUMMARY...Locally training showers and thunderstorms across
portions of central and eastern MO will be posing an increasing
threat of flash flooding in the predawn hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery is showing a band of loosely organized
convection beginning to locally train in a west to east fashion
across portions of central and eastern MO. The convection is
focusing along an elevated instability gradient and is being
facilitated by an increasing southwest low-level jet. The VWP data
from KSGF validates this and shows a nose of 30+ kt winds at 850mb
nosing up toward areas of central and eastern MO with as much as
1000 to 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE noted near and just south of the
overall axis of convection.

Over the next few hours, additional expansion of more linearly
oriented convection is expected for areas of central and eastern
MO as the low-level jet further strengthens and thus facilitates
stronger speed convergence and warm air advection/isentropic
ascent within the elevated instability axis.

PWs across the region are on the order of 1.75 to 2.0 inches and
will be supportive of heavy rainfall rates that may reach 2
inches/hour. Given the increasing concerns of cell-training, some
totals going through the predawn hours may reach 3 to 4 inches.

Given that these rains will likely be falling over areas that have
seen heavy rainfall over the last 24 hours, and with locally
elevated streamflows already occurring, these additional rains are
likely to cause areas of flash flooding.

Additional heavy rains upstream over eastern KS and west-central
MO associated with more organized and stronger convection will
also be approaching toward dawn and into the early to mid-morning
hours. Thus the flash flood threat is likely to only increase with
time.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39269230 39229138 39079047 38609009 38219040
            38089089 38059248 38449367 39139336