219
AWUS01 KWNH 131802
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-140000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0672
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Areas affected...Central and Western New York State

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 131800Z - 140000Z

SUMMARY...Scattered to widespread thunderstorms will increase the
likelihood of flash flooding across central and western New York
state through the afternoon and early evening.

DISCUSSION...General focus for heavy convection for the afternoon
and evening will reside across New York state with increasing
thunderstorm coverage from southwest to northeast, west of the
Hudson/Mohawk Valley`s. Strong theta_E advection ahead of an
advancing cold front has led to broad environmental
destabilization within a warm sector positioned ahead of the
analyzed cold front migrating eastward over neighboring Canada.
PWATs running between 1.75-2.1" across western NY state were
verified this morning via 12z KBUF sounding of 1.95", implicating
a daily max for the site location. MUCAPE between 1500-2500 J/kg
will be centered across much of western NY, plentiful
thermodynamics to generate heavy convective cores capable of
1-2+"/hour rates with some intra-hour rates approaching 3-4"/hr in
spots.

A secondary area of focus may occur right along the southern and
southeast shores off Lake Ontario where HRRR/RRFS CAMs are
indicating a lake breeze convergence area where cells could
materialize and become anchored to the boundary. This would allow
for very slow-moving convection to enhance heavy rain threats just
off the lake shore this afternoon. Anywhere across western and
central NY could see totals eclipse 2" with the 12z HREF
neighborhood probs depicting a 60-90% bullseye for at least 2"
located from the Tug Hill back through the eastern Finger Lakes to
the NY/PA state line. Considering lower FFG`s from previous
convective patterns, this signal is high enough to warrant a flash
flooding likely tag for the convective threat.

Cells will migrate eastward later this evening with more potential
downstream pending cold pool progression and convergence, so the
end of the period of impact will be something to monitor.

Kleebauer

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BTV...BUF...CTP...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON   44807517 44697474 44377454 43807419 43437439
            43177458 42927483 42677516 42507532 42217563
            42027589 41927628 41997689 42097735 42317769
            42577781 42817793 42997790 43187772 43247760
            43267743 43277720 43307716 43277699 43317684
            43467652 43567629 43687620 43867626 44047631
            44157635 44377602 44447592 44577575 44707547