Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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641 FXUS63 KMPX 151739 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1239 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s return today through early next week. - Rain chances increase from Wednesday through next weekend as a more active pattern sets up. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The stationary boundary which had helped produced rain showers and drizzle yesterday morning has drifted off to the north and east. Broad H300 ridging over the eastern half of the CONUS is in place which will keep today rather quiet except for a stray isolated shower. Southerly flow will allow for slightly breezy conditions between 20-25 mph especially across western MN this afternoon. Accompanying these winds will be warmer temperatures. Forecasted highs will rebound into the low to mid 80s which is at least 5 to 8 degrees warmer than yesterday`s highs as H850 thermal ridging infiltrates into the northern plains. The forecast for the first half of the week features a rinse and repeat type pattern containing above average highs in the mid 80s with dry conditions. In regards to "dry conditions", we only have seen 0.03" of rainfall for the month thus far which brings us to a monthly deficit just shy of -1.4 inches. Some good news though is we do have increasing confidence for several chances of rain to return by mid-week and persist into the weekend. Although we are still too far out to share details on exact rainfall impacts but latest ensemble guidance hints at QPF totals up to 1.5" of rainfall though this weekend. Western MN could potentially exceed two inches which agrees well with the current slightly above average on the latest precipitation outlook. Once these systems pass at the end of this week, cooler temperatures return to the upper 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 VFR conditions expected throughout this duration with a mix of mid-level fair wx cumulus clouds and upper level cirrus clouds. Diurnally-driven mid-level clouds will dissipate this evening then are expected to return by Monday afternoon. Chances for rain are 10 percent or less so have kept TAFs dry. Southerly winds will run 10-15kts gusting 15-25kts through this afternoon, diminishing to around 5 kts tonight, then picking up once again after daybreak Monday. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind SE 10-15kts. WED...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA late. Wind SE 10-15kts. THU...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SE 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...JPC