925
FXUS63 KMPX 052354
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
654 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue into the
  evening, nothing strong to severe expected.

- Near normal temperatures, trending warmer, with diurnal
  showers and thunderstorms over the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Rest of Today...The low that drove yesterday`s rain and storms
is now spinning over Wisconsin. With us on the back side of this
low we will continue to see some synoptic lift for the
remainder of today. We have been able to build some instability
and steeper lapse rates with diurnal heating today. This should
be enough to see continued isolated showers and a few
thunderstorms. As diurnal heating falls off later this evening
into tonight this activity will dissipate. With weak shear none
of these storms are likely to be strong to severe. Lapse rates
look best across western Minnesota near and along the Buffalo
Ridge. This is also where the CAMs have the strongest
development. If there is a chance for an isolated stronger
storm with some sub-severe hail it would be out here. Current
radar also agrees with this showing the continued activity in
the area versus the more spurious nature of the rain farther
east.

Saturday and Sunday... This weekend will see another round of
forcing move into the Upper Midwest. In the later part of
Saturday into Sunday we should see PVA from a shortwave and
upper low tracking across the Upper Midwest. With moisture
remaining near average over this period we are not expecting a
heavy rain event like we often saw over the past few weeks. This
will more likely we a diurnally driven event rather than our
more strongly forced events that caused the more widespread
rain. This will see instability build through the day and once
there is enough instability we will be able to make use of the
previously mentioned lift and average moisture to get shower and
storm formation. Shear looks to be lacking such that organized
convection looks unlikely. This weak shear also means what
storms do form will likely be airmass thunderstorms that are
more pulse convection rather than long lived storms. So end
results isolated to scattered showers and storms with little
chance for wind/hail/tornado and won`t be long lived enough or
have the rain rates required for a flood risk. Temperature wise
no strong advection signal so temperatures should trend near to
slightly below normal with highs near 80. More likely on the
below side due to cloud cover and rain chances.

Next week... Multiple smaller waves track across the Upper
Midwest over the next week. This will allow for continued
chances for more diurnal convection. Temperatures within
ensemble members do trend upwards as we go deeper into next
week. Overall we do not have as wet of a signal with lower and
more localized rain chances, as well as a warmer signal. This
will be a change from the recent cooler and wetter weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Isolated activity across the area now will dissipate with the
setting sun. Only potential issue for tonight will be the threat
for some isolated fog formation, but given the expected
coverage of any fog, kept it out of the TAFs for now, but as
usual, EAU will have the greatest fog risk. Main change to the
TAFs was to delay the return of prob30s for more iso-sct TS
activity to Saturday afternoon. Best coverage of -shra/-tsra
actually looks to come Saturday night as the shortwave currently
over Montana swings through southern MN.

KMSP...There will be the treat of more pop-up showers Saturday
afternoon, but it`s the very end of this TAF period when the
best precip chances arrive with the approach of the shortwave.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Chc aftn SHRA/TSRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Chc aftn SHRA/TSRA. Wind W 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Chc aftn SHRA/TSRA. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...MPG