185
FXUS63 KMPX 061725
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northwest winds today will gust as high as 30 to 40 mph.

- A few showers are possible this afternoon, with better
  precipitation chances arriving Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 20243

Cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes is the main weather story for
today, and the resulting gusty northwest winds, slightly cooler
temperatures and a few light showers across parts of the area. A
35-kt 850 mb jet on the west side of the Great Lakes upper low
will favor gusts as high as 40 mph across much of the area later
this morning through the afternoon, with the highest gusts over
western and southwest Minnesota where boundary layer mixing will
be deeper. A few gusts could approach wind advisory criteria of
45 mph across these areas, but held off on any headlines for
now since gusts should generally stay just shy of this
threshold. Cold air advection will also favor some scattered
light showers, mostly north and northeast of I-94 where better
low-level moisture will be available. Instability will be much
weaker and shallower than on Wednesday, and therefore should act
against any kind of hail/gusty wind threat with this activity.

Broad ridging will begin to build in from the west by Friday and
bring a return to near-normal temperatures, generally in the mid
70s. A weak upper wave passing to the north Friday night will
bring another round of showers and possibly a rumble of thunder
or two to much of the area. Limited moisture return and
instability will act against any strong storm or heavy rainfall
threat.

Heading into the weekend and early next week, quasizonal upper
flow will maintain near/slightly below-average temperatures for
much of the period before ridging gradually starts to return
toward the end of the week. Weak waves embedded in this pattern
will provide a few chances for rain, most notably Tuesday and
again Wednesday night/Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Winds gusting from 30-35kts will remain the primary concern for
all sites in the short term, with EAU/RNH also seeing periodic
-SHRA potential, although rates will be light enough to keep VIS
 generally over 6sm. Wind gusts will fall back by 02-03z before
 returning late in the period with less intensity remaining
 under 30kts. BKN CIGS are likely through the gusty period but
 remain VFR except during periods of -SHRA, with rising bases to
 eventually SKC overnight.

KMSP...Kept a -SHRA mention out of the TAF, however there is a
non-zero chance for a shower or two at the terminal. The chance
for now is less than 15 percent and should mainly result in
minor visibility decreases or lowering CIGS to near MVFR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Wind N to S 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Blue Earth-Brown-
     Chippewa-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui
     Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville-
     Sibley-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow
     Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...TDH