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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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049 FXUS63 KMQT 282017 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 417 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rounds of showers are expected into Saturday and then Monday night into Tuesday with quiet weather following each round. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 416 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a well-defined mid-level low over eastern MT with wsw flow downstream into the Great Lakes. In this wsw flow, a shortwave moving across Upper MI is responsible for the shra that have been spreading w to e today. Most of the rainfall has been on the light side. The clouds and shra have resulted in a cool day with current temps mostly in the upper 50s and lwr 60s F. The cool conditions and resulting lack of instability, including for parcels lifted from anywhere above the sfc, have prevented any tsra from developing. To the w, sfc low pres is located in n central MN with a cold front extending ssw thru far nw IA. Within 850mb theta-e ridge ahead of the front, shra/tsra are developing from western IA into se MN. Shra associated with aforementioned shortwave will be exiting the eastern fcst area over the next few hrs. Attention then turns to the convection developing to the sw. Under 850mb theta-e advection as 850mb theta-e ridge advects ne ahead of approaching cold front, there should be additional shra/some tsra development ne thru WI into mainly the se half of Upper MI. Additional shra/tsra, lower coverage, will be possible along the cold front as it moves into Upper MI during the night. With the instability that does build ne into Upper MI limited, svr storms not expected. Temps tonight won`t fall much from current readings. Min temps should be mostly in the upper 50s and lwr 60s F. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 407 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Active weather pattern continues through the next week as an amplified pattern aloft translates to multiple weather systems passing through the region into early June. A few showers linger behind a cold front Saturday followed by high pressure sweeping over the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday, allowing for some nice summer weather. The next round of precipitation looks to be late Monday into Tuesday, but the surface low associated with those showers looks to not be particularly strong and also displaced well to the north, so impacts should be relatively low. Model spread increases beyond then, but a continued warm and wet pattern is expected to continue. By Saturday morning, the cold front will be just about past the UP, a significant increase in speed from model guidance from just 24 hours ago. As such, PoPs fall off behind the front, with only scattered to isolated precipitation expected for the remainder of Saturday. High pressure will follow behind for the remainder of the weekend as a ~1025mb surface high will be over southern Minnesota by Sunday afternoon and over the Michigan Lower Peninsula by Monday afternoon. This will lead to a couple of nice sunny days, though Sunday will definitely be the cooler day of the two as cool northerly flow aloft will keep highs mainly in the 60s Sunday, but winds becoming southerly Monday will allow highs to rebound to seasonal 70s. With clear skies allowing for efficient radiational cooling overnight, bias-corrected MOS guidance hints at the potential for some interior locations to fall to the upper 30s Sunday morning and Monday morning. Precipitation chances begin to ramp up Monday evening into Tuesday as the next trough exits the Rockies and a surface low passes generally through northern Ontario. The GEFS has trended stronger with this low pressure, with a mean low now in the 990s mb, but the trend in the path has been even further north, almost to the Hudson Bay. As even the southernmost cluster of lows remains well north of the UP, dynamics should be fairly weak over the UP, so hazardous weather seems unlikely at this time. Following the passage of showers, another dry period is expected Wednesday, but to what extent that dry weather lasts is uncertain as ensemble spread increases significantly, though a pattern change is still not expected as the CPC outlooks that the first half of July is still more likely to be warmer and wetter than normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 148 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Area of shra moving across Upper MI will be accompanied by and followed by lowering cigs. At IWD, expect low MVFR to prevail thru the fcst period, though IFR is a possibility this evening. MVFR cigs may also scatter out to VFR for a time late tonight/Sat morning. Bulk of shra activity has exited to the e of IWD, but potential for a few shra exists thru the fcst period. Southerly wind should gust upwards of 25kt this aftn. At CMX, Initial VFR will fall to low MVFR in the next hr or so with potential for IFR to set in. However, IFR is more likely to set in this evening and then to persist thru Sat morning. LLWS will continue at CMX this aftn. The more persistent shra will end in the next few hrs at CMX, but potential of a few -shra will continue. At SAW, MVFR will fall to IFR this aftn and then to LIFR this evening under moist/upsloping southerly winds. Expect VFR to return Sat morning as winds shift to the nw with fropa. The more persistent shra will end in the next few hrs at SAW, but potential of a few -shra will continue. && .MARINE... Issued at 407 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 As a cold front approaches from the west, southerly wind gusts increase to around 25 kt across the lake beginning this morning, with some gusts to around 30 kt in the eastern nearshores of Lake Superior as winds flow downslope onto the lake. As winds veer westerly behind the front on Saturday, wind gusts across the lake briefly fall below 20 kt Saturday morning, but mixing behind the front allows for northwesterly wind gusts to 25-30 kt over the eastern half of the lake. The return of high pressure will keep wind gusts below 20 kt Saturday night through Monday night before the next system passes through northern Ontario, increasing the wind gusts to around and above 20 kt into Tuesday. As the system lifts northeast and out of the region Tuesday night, winds fall mainly below 20 kt through the rest of the forecast period. Long-duration southerlies today will cause waves over the northern portions of the lake to increase to 4-6 ft, with some waves to 7 feet along the US/Canada border. The northwesterlies behind the cold front passage will cause 5-8 ft waves over the eastern half of the lake Saturday night. Thunderstorms will also threaten the lake today. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ014. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...GS AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...GS