Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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100 FXUS63 KMQT 271136 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 736 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Rounds of showers Friday into Saturday and Monday night into Tuesday with quiet weather following each round. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Confluent flow ahead of broad mid-upper level ridging over the Plains will lead to broad surface ridging and dry conditions across the region which should persist through much of tonight. WAA mid-high clouds will increase from the west tonight ahead of the frontal system moving in from the Plains, but any isolated/scattered showers should hold off except for maybe late tonight into the far west. Under sunny skies and developing lake breezes with 850 mb temps rising to 8-10C in the afternoon, look for highs today mostly in the lower 70s, except for maybe some mid to upper 60s readings along the Lake Superior shoreline. Lows tonight will be mostly in the 50s under increasing cloud cover and increased mixing late from a modest increase in southerly winds. Some upper 40s readings will be possible over the interior east half where there will be a more evening clearing and lighter winds. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 359 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 It will be an active end to the work week and beginning of the weekend as an approaching trough and associated surface low pressure feature pass directly over the UP Friday and Saturday. These will force showers and thunderstorms, of which an isolated storm on Friday may be strong to severe. Despite the prolonged period of shower chances, flooding rainfall is not expected. High pressure then sweeps over the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday, allowing for some nice summer weather. The next round of precipitation looks to be late Monday into Tuesday, but the surface low associated with those showers looks to not be particularly strong and also displaced well to the north, so impacts should be relatively low. Model spread increases beyond then, but a continued warm and wet pattern is expected to continue. Beginning Friday, a 500mb trough will be over eastern Montana and quickly progressing east. This will support an upper-990s mb low pressure over the Red River Valley (of the north), causing a strengthening southerly surface flow setup. 850mb warm advection, isentropic upglide, and 500mb PVA will all contribute lift for showers well ahead of the main surface front, with the HREF suggesting 50-70% hourly PoPs Friday morning while the cold front is still between Minneapolis and Fargo. Showers in the morning should be fairly weak as instability is meager, but HREF mean MUCAPE suggests by 00Z Wednesday, instability in the IWD vicinity will be approaching 500 J/kg, so some afternoon thunder is within the realm of possibility. It is definitely a low-CAPE, high-shear environment, with HREF mean 0-3km SRH values well north of 200 m2/s2. Reflectivity paintball plots indicate strong convection firing upstream, so depending on if those storms can survive as they progress eastward, an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out over the west, but there is plenty of uncertainty given the lack of instability. By Saturday, the cold front will be approaching the UP, providing better forcing, though the 00Z GEFS still suggests only around 10% of members with SBCAPE values above 500 J/kg, so the thunderstorms that do form will struggle to become strong. GEFS mean daily QPF on Saturday ranges from around an inch in the Keweenaw to around a half inch in Menominee, which both are well short of flash flooding guidance and will most likely not be enough to impact river flooding. PoPs fall off behind the front, with precipitation expected to be ended by 12Z Sunday morning. This is supported by a ~1025mb high pressure that will be over southern Minnesota by Sunday afternoon and over the Michigan Lower Peninsula by Monday afternoon. This will lead to a couple of nice sunny days, though Sunday will definitely be the cooler day of the two as cool northerly flow aloft will keep highs mainly in the 60s Sunday, but winds becoming southerly Monday will allow highs to rebound to seasonal 70s. Precipitation chances begin to ramp up Monday night into Tuesday as the next trough exits the Rockies and a surface low passes generally through northern Ontario. The GEFS shows this low as only marginally stronger than 1000 mb and as even the southernmost cluster of lows remains well north of the UP, dynamics should be fairly weak over the UP, so hazardous weather seems unlikely at this time. Following the passage of showers, another dry period is expected Wednesday, but to what extent that dry weather lasts is uncertain as ensemble spread increases significantly, though a pattern change is still not expected as the CPC outlooks that the first half of July is still more likely to be warmer and wetter than normal. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 733 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 VFR to continue through duration of this TAF period with Upper Michigan under the influence of high pressure. However, there will be lowering of mid clouds from the west late tonight ahead of an approaching front and it`s not out of the question that a stray shower could move into the IWD area. Expect LLWS at both IWD and CMX between 06-12Z Fri. && .MARINE... Issued at 359 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Under high pressure, wind gusts will remain below 20 kt through today and tonight. As a cold front approaches from the west, southerly wind gusts increase to 20-25 kt across the west half of the lake Friday into Friday night. As winds veer westerly behind the front on Saturday, wind gusts across the lake will be 20-25 kt. The return of high pressure will keep wind gusts below 20 kt Saturday night through Monday night before the next system passes through northern Ontario, increasing the wind gusts to around and above 20 kt into Tuesday. Long-duration southerlies on Friday will cause waves over the northern portions of the lake to increase to 4-6 ft. The westerlies behind the cold front passage will cause 4-6 ft waves over the eastern half of the lake Saturday night. Thunderstorms will also threaten the lake Friday and Saturday, with some strong to severe storms possible over the western portion of the lake Friday evening. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Voss LONG TERM...GS AVIATION...Voss MARINE...GS