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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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760 FXUS63 KMQT 260655 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 255 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers arrive over northwest Upper MI around sunrise today. - Pattern remains active, especially from late week into early next week, with yet more rounds of showers and storms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 343 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show that the convectively enhanced shortwave that brought shra/tsra to the area last night is over Georgian Bay. Another shortwave trof extends from James Bay to nw of Lake Superior and a third shortwave is over southern Saskatchewan. At the sfc, a trof extends across eastern Lake Superior and central Upper MI, and a cold front extends from James Bay to just nw of Lake Superior. Rapidly deepening mixed layer to the w of the sfc trof is leading to sharp drying this aftn as sfc dwpts are plummeting into the mid 40s to lwr 50s F across western Upper MI. To the e, sfc trof and lake breeze development off of Lake Superior has led to a few shra developing recently. For the next couple of hrs, expect isold shra over the eastern fcst area ahead of sfc trof/lake breeze. Otherwise, dwpts will continue to fall from w to e in the wake of passing sfc trof, leading to more comfortable conditions under temps in the mid 70s to mid 80s F. Across the Keweenaw, fcst soundings suggest wind gusts to around 40 mph over the next several hrs. Wouldn`t be surprised to see a few gusts to around 45 mph for a couple of hrs based on winds at top of mixed layer. Otherwise, wind gusts of 20-30mph will be fairly common over roughly the w half of Upper MI. Cold front approaching Lake Superior will drop s across the area later this evening/overnight. Other than a wind shift to n to ne, it should pass uneventfully given the drying that is currently underway. Expect clear to partly cloudy skies thru the evening. Late tonight, attention turns to shortwave currently over southern Saskatchewan. This wave will reach nw WI/western Lake Superior around 12z Wed. Given the decent, small cluster of shra currently associated with this feature, models seem on track bringing shra into nw Upper MI in the 10-12z timeframe. Cold front that drops into the area tonight will be aligned from northern MN se thru northern WI early Wed morning, and that should also provide some focusing of forcing as well due to weak waa over the boundary in response to the wave. Temps tonight will fall back to the mid 40s to mid 50s F. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 252 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The pattern will remain fairly active and progressive through the extended fcst period as a couple of Pacific-based shortwave troughs traverse the northern tier of the CONUS and bring more rounds of showers and t-storms to the Upper Great Lakes mainly in the Friday- Saturday night and Monday night into Wednesday time periods. Starting Thursday, a weak high pressure ridge persists across the region into much of Thu night as dry weather prevails. Weak pressure gradient and light winds will result in lake breezes during the day on Thursday. Expect highs generally in the lower 70s, except a touch cooler in the mid to upper 60s near the Great Lakes shores. Look for lows Thu night in the lower to mid 50s, except for some cooler upper 40s readings over the eastern interior. Friday and Saturday, a mid-level trough/closed low just off the Pacific Northwest coast as noted on satellite imagery early this morning will move onshore later this morning. This trough will support cyclogenesis in the lee of the Northern Rockies Thursday night with the sfc low ejecting east into the Dakotas and along the international border/northern MN Friday and into the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday. WAA/isentropic ascent and theta-e advection ahead of the low will support showers and thunderstorms spreading into Upper Mi on Friday. The initial shortwave embedded within the mid- level trough will move into the region Saturday while pushing a cold front through the area Friday night into Saturday. Increased instability noted ahead and along the cold front should increase chances for thunder as it passes through the area at this time. A second shortwave moving through the trough axis will send a secondary cold front across the area late Sat into early Sun perhaps triggering some isolated to scattered light showers along with a burst of gustier nw-n winds and colder temps. High pressure building in quickly behind the front will result in drier, albeit cooler conditions Sunday afternoon into Monday. Models then advertise another mid-level trough moving in off the West Coast which again will promote lee-side cyclogenesis over the Northern Rockies early next week. The associated sfc low is fcst to lift northeast through the Northern Rockies into Manitoba and northern Ontario Mon night into Tuesday as it propels a cold front across the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. Ahead of and along this front another round of showers/t-storms is expected next Mon night into Tuesday. The passage of another shortwave and secondary cold front from this system could bring more light showers into the area on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 124 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR will prevail at IWD/CMX/SAW through tonight. Winds will diminish toward sunset and then veer n to ne. A few shra may also occur at CMX btwn 11-14z. The MVFR cigs at CMX and SAW that form in the morning will scatter out to VFR at CMX/SAW during the aftn. && .MARINE... Issued at 252 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Winds have switched northerly early this morning at 15-20 kts behind a cold front dropping south across the lake but will taper off below 15 kts during the day today. With high pressure over the lake through Thursday, winds are expected to mainly remain below 20 kts. A weakening low pressure tracking through the Upper Great Lakes early this weekend will allow for s-se gusts 20-25 kt Friday over mainly the east half ahead of the front and then nw gusts 20-25 kt behind the cold frontal passage on Saturday before building high pressure returns Sunday and ushers in lighter winds into Monday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...Voss AVIATION...07 MARINE...Voss