Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
766 FXUS64 KMRX 011854 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 254 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Key Messages: 1. Near to slightly below normal temps tonight. 2. Dry and warmer tomorrow as ridging strengthens across the region. Discussion: Near to slightly below normal temps overnight under mostly clear skies. Ridging strengthens across the region tomorrow, allowing for warmer but near normal temperatures. Southerly flow returns in the low levels tomorrow, meaning dewpoints will be slightly higher. This means afternoon RH values will be higher compared to today, but still below normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Monday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Key Messages: 1. Dry to mostly dry conditions through Wednesday, with increasing chances of diurnal showers and storms Thursday into the weekend. 2. Hot conditions expected to continue through the extended, humidity returns late week. Discussion: Overall, not much has amassed in terms of changes to the messaging & talking points of the extended period from previous forecasts. Conditions are expected to remain dry and warm through the early portions of the week. Increasing chances of diurnal convection returns Thursday as southwesterly surface winds ramp up moisture advection with dewpoints rising into the 70s area wide, continuing into the weekend. The ECMWF is most aggressive with a surface front draping through the Ohio Valley for Independence Day. This has lead to relatively higher PoPs in comparison to other guidance such as GFS, NAM, and Canadian, all of which seem to have a better grasp on the influence of upper level ridging and associated subsidence. Have blended aforementioned models with NBM to pull shower/tstorm wording to slight chance in the valley to chance in higher elevations. Additionally, portions of the southern and central TN valley will observe heat indices from the upper 90s to lower 100s so make sure to take plenty of breaks in shaded areas and stay hydrated if spending time our doors. Upper level troughing swinging across the mid section of the CONUS will lead to increasing chances of daily showers and storms Friday and into the weekend. Slight relief from the heat may occur post FROPA over the weekend but overall conditions will remain summer- like. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period. Gusty north winds at CHA will subside this evening but will return late in the period. Lighter north winds expected at TYS and TRI, around 10kts or less. TYS could see a brief gust up to 20kts during peak heating this afternoon but not enough confidence to include in forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 91 72 93 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 91 69 93 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 65 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 87 63 90 / 0 0 0 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM....KRS AVIATION...