783
FXUS64 KMRX 020431
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1231 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Upper ridge across the Mississippi Valley continues to place our
region within an area of subsidence with a clear sky and no
precipitation across the region. Surface high pressure across the
Ohio Valley has been resulting in northeasterly winds throughout
the afternoon. With the nocturnal inversion tonight, winds become
light with continued weak down valley flow through the night.

This general pattern continues tomorrow with increasing
temperatures as ridging continues to shift eastward across the
Tennessee Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Key Messages:

1. Near to slightly below normal temps tonight.

2. Dry and warmer tomorrow as ridging strengthens across the region.

Discussion:

Near to slightly below normal temps overnight under mostly clear
skies. Ridging strengthens across the region tomorrow, allowing for
warmer but near normal temperatures. Southerly flow returns in the
low levels tomorrow, meaning dewpoints will be slightly higher. This
means afternoon RH values will be higher compared to today, but
still below normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dry to mostly dry conditions through Wednesday, with increasing
chances of diurnal showers and storms Thursday into the weekend.

2. Hot conditions expected to continue through the extended,
humidity returns late week.

Discussion:

Overall, not much has amassed in terms of changes to the messaging &
talking points of the extended period from previous forecasts.
Conditions are expected to remain dry and warm through the early
portions of the week. Increasing chances of diurnal convection
returns Thursday as southwesterly surface winds ramp up moisture
advection with dewpoints rising into the 70s area wide, continuing
into the weekend.

The ECMWF is most aggressive with a surface front draping through
the Ohio Valley for Independence Day. This has lead to relatively
higher PoPs in comparison to other guidance such as GFS, NAM, and
Canadian, all of which seem to have a better grasp on the influence
of upper level ridging and associated subsidence. Have blended
aforementioned models with NBM to pull shower/tstorm wording to
slight chance in the valley to chance in higher elevations.
Additionally, portions of the southern and central TN valley will
observe heat indices from the upper 90s to lower 100s so make sure
to take plenty of breaks in shaded areas and stay hydrated if
spending time our doors.

Upper level troughing swinging across the mid section of the CONUS
will lead to increasing chances of daily showers and storms Friday
and into the weekend. Slight relief from the heat may occur post
FROPA over the weekend but overall conditions will remain summer-
like.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

High pressure to continue to provide VFR and dry conditions
through the TAF period. Winds will remain light at TYS and TRI. At
CHA winds will gust during the afternoon tomorrow before weakening
with the loss of sun in the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             91  72  93  75 /   0   0  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  91  69  93  74 /   0   0  10  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       91  69  92  73 /   0   0  10  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              87  63  90  69 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...Wellington