Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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256 FXUS64 KOHX 301738 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1238 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 After seeing some morning thunderstorms that brought heavy rain to parts of the area we are overall seeing quiet weather and a break in the activity. Dew points are in the mid to upper 70s making it feel very humid, highs this afternoon will make it into the upper 80s north and lower 90s south. A cold front is sitting just to our north over KY and this will push south this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of this front and that is what we can expect for the afternoon with the best chances to the east of I-65. The atmosphere will recover and we will see plenty of CAPE this afternoon. Shear will be on the low side and lapse rates could be better, this will limit severe weather but still can`t rule out some gusty winds with any of the stronger cells. The bigger impact will be heavy rain, PWATs are as highs as 2.30". Storm motion this morning was parallel to the front and we saw some training, thankfully storm motions has shifted more southeast and this should limit training storms over the same area but with the highs PWATs we still could see some localized flooding with thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances will diminish by 7-8 PM this evening and then we will see much cooler direr air build in behind the front overnight. Lows tonight will fall into the mid 50s to lower 60s with dew points falling into the 50s by daybreak. We will then see a great day on Monday with highs in the 80s and very comfortable dew points. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Unfortunately our cooler and comfortable weather won`t last as upper level ridging will start to build back in over the region. This will warm things back up into the 90s on Tuesday and highs will stay in the low to mid 90s through the rest of the week. We will also see very warm overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s, this will bring little to no relief to those without air conditioning. The high will be slightly off to our east starting Wednesday and this will push high dew points into the region and it will feel very humid with dew points above 70. A popup afternoon storm will be possible on Wednesday but chances look low. We will start to see slightly better chances for mainly afternoon thunderstorms Thursday and Friday as troughing develops over the Great Lakes pushing a stationary boundary to our north. Forcing still doesn`t look great in our area but should be enough to kick some stuff off. This front may push south through the area early next weekend and that would bring slight cooling. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 A surface boundary is in the process of working its way southward across Middle Tennessee. Most of the earlier convection has dissipated, but a new round of cells has started popping up, mainly in the warmer region south of I-40 where the cooler air hasn`t yet reached. There is a small chance of storms during the afternoon at our terminals. The air mass remains humid and surface heating will likely help generate additional cells. For now, we`ll handle the storm chances with VCTS/CB remarks. After 00Z, we should be in the clear. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 65 84 64 94 / 10 0 0 0 Clarksville 62 81 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 58 80 58 86 / 30 0 0 0 Columbia 64 84 60 93 / 20 0 0 0 Cookeville 59 79 59 88 / 20 0 0 0 Jamestown 58 78 57 88 / 20 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 63 84 60 91 / 20 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 63 85 61 94 / 20 0 0 0 Waverly 62 82 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Giles- Lawrence-Lewis-Marshall-Maury-Wayne. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....Rose