187
FXUS64 KOHX 301647
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1147 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

After seeing some morning thunderstorms that brought heavy rain
to parts of the area we are overall seeing quiet weather and a
break in the activity. Dew points are in the mid to upper 70s
making it feel very humid, highs this afternoon will make it into
the upper 80s north and lower 90s south. A cold front is sitting
just to our north over KY and this will push south this afternoon.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead
of this front and that is what we can expect for the afternoon
with the best chances to the east of I-65. The atmosphere will
recover and we will see plenty of CAPE this afternoon. Shear will
be on the low side and lapse rates could be better, this will
limit severe weather but still can`t rule out some gusty winds
with any of the stronger cells. The bigger impact will be heavy
rain, PWATs are as highs as 2.30". Storm motion this morning was
parallel to the front and we saw some training, thankfully storm
motions has shifted more southeast and this should limit training
storms over the same area but with the highs PWATs we still could
see some localized flooding with thunderstorms.

Thunderstorm chances will diminish by 7-8 PM this evening and then
we will see much cooler direr air build in behind the front
overnight. Lows tonight will fall into the mid 50s to lower 60s
with dew points falling into the 50s by daybreak. We will then see
a great day on Monday with highs in the 80s and very comfortable
dew points.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Unfortunately our cooler and comfortable weather won`t last as
upper level ridging will start to build back in over the region.
This will warm things back up into the 90s on Tuesday and highs
will stay in the low to mid 90s through the rest of the week. We
will also see very warm overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s,
this will bring little to no relief to those without air
conditioning. The high will be slightly off to our east starting
Wednesday and this will push high dew points into the region and
it will feel very humid with dew points above 70. A popup
afternoon storm will be possible on Wednesday but chances look
low. We will start to see slightly better chances for mainly
afternoon thunderstorms Thursday and Friday as troughing develops
over the Great Lakes pushing a stationary boundary to our north.
Forcing still doesn`t look great in our area but should be enough
to kick some stuff off. This front may push south through the area
early next weekend and that would bring slight cooling.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Not many changes in thinking from the 06Z TAF.  For the most part
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. A cold front is
working its way through the mid south and Tennessee. It is
summertime and cold fronts tend to loose umph this time of year.
Some TS continue to be possible this morning and into the early
afternoon with this front. Confidence is not all that great in the
storms lasting too long in one place so indicated the best time
with P6SM -SHRA/VCTS. The only way conditions won/t stay VFR at a
TAF site is if a thunderstorms passes directly over a terminal.
In this case the storms should move in such that they won/t be
long lived.

Winds will be W/NW and swing around to N with the weak frontal
passage. High resolution models are still indicating some gusty
winds after sunset /after 01/00Z/. Have included gusts up to 20kts
after 22Z for BNA/MQY/CKV.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      91  65  84  64 /  70  10   0   0
Clarksville    88  62  81  61 /  60   0   0   0
Crossville     87  58  80  58 /  70  30   0   0
Columbia       92  64  84  60 /  70  20   0   0
Cookeville     87  59  79  59 /  80  20   0   0
Jamestown      85  58  78  57 /  80  20   0   0
Lawrenceburg   92  63  84  60 /  70  20   0   0
Murfreesboro   92  63  85  61 /  70  20   0   0
Waverly        89  62  82  61 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Giles-
Lawrence-Lewis-Marshall-Maury-Wayne.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....12