905
FXUS64 KOHX 190524
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1224 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Radar this evening shows the earlier shower activity across the
midstate has dissipated. Surface obs indicate it`s still very warm
and humid with current temps in the mid 70s to low 80s and
dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s. This very moist airmass will
not allow temps to drop much overnight, and lows are only expected
to reach the mid 60s on the Plateau and upper 60s to low 70s
elsewhere. A few areas of patchy fog are possible overnight but
nothing widespread is anticipated. Current forecast has this all
covered well and only made minor updates based on latest NBM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Will keep a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for locations
west of I-65 Corridor and for locations approaching TN/KY Border
Region through mid afternoon hours today. Otherwise building upper
level ridging influences from our east along with a continuance of
southerly based low level atmospheric flow will provide for dry but
seasonally warm temperatures through Wednesday afternoon. Current
regional temperature trends continue to support forecasted high
temperatures for afternoon hours today ranging generally upper 80s
to lower 90s, mid 80s higher elevations of Cumberland Plateau
Region. Lows tonight will be seasonably mild ranging generally in
low to mid 70s, upper 60s to around 70 Cumberland Plateau Region.
Highs on Wednesday will be like those experienced this afternoon.
Prevalence of scattered to broken high level cloudiness at times
will inhibit max heating potential and thus not expecting
temperatures to get significantly warmer than these values despite
enhancing upper level ridging influences.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Upper level ridging influences will continue to build and
strengthen across our area at least through Saturday afternoon
with a diffuse southerly low level atmospheric flow continuing.
Dry conditions will continue to prevail. Temperatures will continue
to warm, with highs in low to mid 90s on Thursday with century mark
certainly not out of question for Nashville Metro Area and other
locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region on Saturday. Relative
humidity values during afternoon hours Thursday through Saturday
will have a decreasing values trend, so not expecting heat index
values to become a factor. Finally upper level ridging begins to
weaken as second half of weekend into first part of next work week
progresses with a more northwesterly flow pattern aloft potentially
developing and ushering in upper level disturbances in flow. Another
century mark day could be in store for Nashville Metro Area on
Sunday, with mid to upper 90s for other locations west of Cumberland
Plateau Region, lower 90s across these locations, with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. High temperatures on
Monday and Tuesday west of Cumberland Plateau Region will range in
low to mid 90s, around 90 Cumberland Plateau Region, with enough
humidity now to support heat index values west of Cumberland Plateau
Region ranging 100 to 105 degrees. Nighttime lows Sunday night
through next Tuesday night will be in low to mid 70s, upper 60s to
around 70 for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau
Region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

While high clouds will be around, VFR conditions are expected for
this TAF cycle. Winds will be light and variable at times, but the
prevailing fetch should be from the southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      91  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    89  70  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     85  64  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       90  68  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     87  68  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      87  66  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   88  67  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   91  68  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        89  70  93  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Shamburger
SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Unger