305
FXUS61 KOKX 240837
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
437 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through early this morning with high pressure
building in for the rest of today through Tuesday. The high settles
south of the area Tuesday night as a warm front lift north Tuesday
night. A cold front will move across from Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. High pressure will then return for Thursday
night into Friday, and move off the northeast coast on Saturday
as a frontal system begins to approach. The system moves through
Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cold front moves through the eastern half of the forecast area early
this morning as low pressure in the Gulf of Maine slowly moves
east. An upper level low over New England and upper level trough
over the Northeast also heads slowly east today.

Southwesterly winds will shift to the west, then
northwest. It looks like it will be a rather breezy day today
thanks to some decent cold air advection behind the cold front.
NBM winds looked too low, so used LAMP guidance winds and
lowered winds a bit from there. This yields peak sustained winds
today of 20 to 25 mph, with peak gusts of 30 to 35 kt.
Additionally, NAM, GFS, and RAP have 30 to 40 kt winds at the
top of the mixed layer this afternoon. Assuming a portion of
that mixes down, then the aforementioned gusts should be
realized, with the potential of even stronger sustained winds
and gusts.

Cold air advection will also allow a cooler air mass, with highs
today expected to range from the upper 70s to middle 80s. While
these temperatures are still a few degrees above normal, they are
much lower than the upper 80s to upper 90s that were seen yesterday.
The windy conditions should also allow dew points to be lower than
what is in much of the guidance as dew points are in the 40s at the
top of the mixed layer. Expect dew points across the normally drier
areas of northeast NJ and Lower Hudson Valley to drop to the lower
50s by this afternoon and even into the 40s if winds are stronger
than forecast. All this will make for a much more comfortable
start to the week for most.

There is just a slight chance for showers across northern areas
of the Lower Hudson Valley this afternoon as the upper level low
and trough slowly move east. With dew points dropping into the
40s and 50s, don`t expect too much to reach the ground.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Winds diminish overnight with the loss of daytime heating this
evening. A much more comfortable night with lows in the upper 60s to
upper 50s across the area tonight. Lows may be a couple of degrees
too high if the air mass is drier than forecast. Winds may stay up
enough so that radiational cooling may not be maximized.

The high will continue to build in for Tuesday and settled to the
south of the area by Tuesday afternoon and evening. Winds shift to
the west then southwest by the afternoon, allowing for a rise in
temperatures. Highs should top off in the upper 80s to lower 90s for
much of the area. With dew points still in the 50s region-wide, heat
headlines are not anticipated.

A warm front lifts north of the area overnight Tuesday, allowing for
an increase in dew points and for a return to warm overnight lows,
ranging from the middle 70s in the metro area, to upper 60s in the
interior.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:

* Temperatures will remain near to just above normal, with Wednesday
  the warmest and most humid day of the period.

* A slow moving cold front may bring locally heavy rainfall from
  late day Wednesday through Wednesday night.

Global guidance continues to remain in fair agreement for next week
and as such, there has not been much change to the forecast with
this update. The National Blend of Models was followed closely.

An amplifying northern stream upper trough moves through the Great
Lakes and northeast Wednesday through Thursday with a surface low
tracking across southeastern Canada. Deep southwest flow ahead of
the systems cold front will bring warm and humid air into the region
Wednesday with inland temperatures expected to be in the lower to
mid 90s. Wednesday may be marginal for heat advisories as a few
locations across northeastern New Jersey will have heat indices
nearing 100. Precipitable water values increase to 1.75 to 2.0
inches Wednesday into Wednesday night. Strong upper lift with
increased surface and elevated CAPE, along with instability will
result in thunderstorms by ate Wednesday into Wednesday night with
the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall. And there is a chance
of excessive rainfall across the lower Hudson Valley into
northeastern New Jersey.

High pressure moving out of central Canada Thursday into Thursday
night will be a cooler and drier airmass to the region as dew points
drop into the lower to mid 50s Thursday through Friday.

Another frontal system approaches Saturday with a warm front moving
north, with increased humidity, and a chance of showers and
thunderstorms into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front moves through the terminals overnight west, and around
11Z east.

VFR.

Gusty S/SW winds ahead of the front become gusty westerly with a
cold front passage, and then NW late this morning into the
afternoon. Gusts overnight 15-20 kt, and may be more occasional
until the frontal passage. Winds this morning increase to 15-20 kt,
with gusts also increasing. By afternoon gusts 25-30 kt are likely,
and there may be occasional gusts as high as 35 kt after 19Z. Winds
and gusts diminish after sunset, with the gusts ending late Monday
night.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts this afternoon, mainly late afternoon, may be as
high as 35 kt.


OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Late Monday night: VFR. NW winds G20-25 kt, ending after 07Z.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
late afternoon, and likely at night, with MVFR or lower possible. SW
wind 15-20 kt G20-25 kt near the coast.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible early with a chance of showers,
then VFR.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are expected to increase behind a cold front that will move
through this morning. SCAs already up for the ocean, but SCAs have
been issued for non-ocean waters for late this morning for the
harbor, south shore bays, and western sound and early this afternoon
for Peconic and Gardiner`s bays and the central and eastern sound as
the cold frontal passage is expected later in these areas. Winds
diminish tonight, and non-ocean waters SCAs come down at 2 am
Tuesday, or sooner if winds diminish quicker than forecast.

SCA on the ocean waters have been extended due to the combination of
the 25 to 30 kt wind gusts expected today and the slowly diminishing
waves that are expected to remain above 5 ft through tonight. Waves
should be diminishing at the start of the near term period (this
morning) at 4 to 7 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through Tuesday night expected. There is
a chance for locally heavy rain from late day Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night ahead of a cold front that moves
through Wednesday night.



&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high rip current risk continues today for all ocean beaches
mainly due to an energetic S swell. The risk lowers to moderate
on Tuesday as seas subside with an offshore wind trajectory for
much of the day.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ331-332-340.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ335-338-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...