718
FXUS61 KOKX 280159
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
959 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure build across the area through Friday morning, and
then passes offshore Friday night. A warm front will approach
on Saturday and lift into the area Saturday night, followed by a
cold front on Sunday. High pressure will then return on Monday
and last into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Gusty NW winds in wake of cold frontal passage will gradually
subside overnight. Potential for radiational cooling across far
outlying areas late.

Below seasonable temps tonight with lows 50-55 inland and in
the Long Island Pine Barrens region, 55-60 most elsewhere, and
60-65 invof NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Sunny as high pressure builds across. Winds will gradually veer
from N-NE early to S in the afternoon. With a cooler air mass
in place and onshore flow, high temps should be limited to
75-80. Return flow Sat night should lead to temps not quite so
cool as those for Thu night, ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s

Expect increasing clouds thru the day on Sat as a warm front
approaches. Sped up timing of guidance PoP by a couple of hours,
with chance from NYC north/west in the afternoon, becoming
likely throughout during the evening. There is potential for
locally heavy rainfall given PW increasing to 2-2.5 inches.

Clouds and onshore flow should limit high temps on Sat to the
70s and lower 80s. WAA will keep temps Sat night on the warm
side and it will be muggy as dewpoints increase, with lows in
the upper 60s/lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front approaches on Sunday with a pre-frontal trough. While
not raining all day, the combination of the two features will bring
a good chance of showers both morning and afternoon with plenty of
moisture convergence in the vicinity. Moisture content will be high
through with models showing PWATS of 2.25 to 2.50 inches. Mitigating
the potential of flash flooding will be a relatively quick
unidirectional flow through the mid levels which will have showers
and storms moving relatively quickly and hampering the cell training
potential. See the hydrology section for more details.

Regarding thunderstorms, SBCAPES probably on the order of 1000-2000
J/kg with around 40kt 0-6km bulk shear. Strong wind gusts will
therefore be possible. Would have more confidence in the chance of
severe weather if the approaching trough aloft were progged to
arrive earlier as this would promote more conducive mid-level lapse
rates in the afternoon. Still something to keep an eye on as Sunday
draws closer.

850mb temps on Sunday range mostly 16-18C with models in pretty good
agreement that a narrow ridge of 19C reaches into NE NJ and perhaps
adjacent areas. With the high potential of rain and cloud cover, it
looks like highs there will be near 90 with 80s for the rest of the
forecast area. Dewpoints will be high, leading to max heat indices
generally a couple of degrees warmer than the high temperatures.

The cold front passes through late in the day Sunday or Sunday
evening and should be offshore by Monday morning. PoPs lower through
Sunday night, then dry weather for Monday. The dry weather then
continues through at least Wednesday with high pressure in control.
Much more comfortable dewpoints for Monday and Tuesday before a
little mugginess returns on Wednesday. The next cold front and pre-
frontal trough may impact the weather on Thursday. Will keep PoPs
at slight chance for now as per NBM, but if this setup holds, would
not be surprised to see PoPs trend higher for Thursday over the next
few days.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR through the TAF period with high pressure in control.

NW winds 10-15G20-25kt will subside through midnight and veer
to N 7-10 kt overnight. Light N/NE winds give way to S/SE
seabreeze in the afternoon across all coastal terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of seabreeze development on Friday may be off by an hour
or so.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms for western
terminals during the afternoon, becoming likely at night. MVFR
likely, IFR possible, especially at night.

Sunday...Showers and thunderstorms likely, MVFR likely, IFR
possible.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Occasional nearshore gusts to 25kt this evening with cold air
advection in wake of cold front. Conditions settle down late
tonight into Friday as high pressure moves overhead.

Thereafter, SCA conds look increasingly likely on the ocean and
possibly the south shore bays for Sat night into Sunday as SW
flow increases, with gusts up to 25 kt and seas peaking at 5-6
ft late Sat night into Sunday morning. Ocean seas should remain
elevated into Sunday evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.50 inches are expected from
Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon with locally higher
amounts possible. Minor poor drainage/urban flooding will be
possible. Flash flooding cannot be ruled out, but with the
forward speed of showers and probably a lack of training cells,
overall chances for flash flooding appear to be low.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current risk for Friday will range from low to
moderate. As for Saturday, the risk will be mostly moderate, but
a high risk is anticipated for the ocean beaches of Brooklyn
and Queens as well as eastern Suffolk County.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...