133
FXUS66 KOTX 280906
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
206 AM PDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild, mostly dry weather likely Friday, followed by warmer
temperatures Saturday. The next system moves through Sunday, with
more wind and thunderstorms. Mountain showers and seasonal
temperatures will continue through the early week. The forecast
trends warmer and drier by the middle to the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tomorrow: Thanks to an upper level low
over Southeast Alberta, there is a small chance of showers (20%)
to Boundary, Bonner, and Pend Oreille Counties later today.
Otherwise will be a quiet day with high clouds filtering in
through the southwest with high temperatures in the 70s and 80s.
Tomorrow will another mild day in the 80s with plentiful cloud
cover ahead of another weak trough off the Pacific coast. There is
a 20% chance of showers in the Cascades and northern mountains
tomorrow with this wave. High resolution models are hinting at
elevated shower development in the Columbia Basin and moving east
during the afternoon tomorrow. There is a small dry lightning risk
tomorrow (less than 5% chance) with this band of elevated showers
as the boundary layer is very dry and models indicate a band of
250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE in the Blue Mountains and central/southern
Idaho Panhandle. Butler

Sunday through Thursday: Unsettled weather returns to start next
week. Showers and thunderstorms will form over the Cascades,
northern mountains, and ID Panhandle, with modest shear and MUCAPE.
Those with outdoor plans should remain vigilant for changing
conditions. Winds will also increase with gusts of 20 to 30 mph
during the afternoon, decreasing after sunset. Then we repeat
Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday; high temps in the 80s,
increasing winds in the afternoons, and showers and thunderstorms
over the higher terrain. The chance of showers and thunderstorms
will decrease slightly each day with most contained along the
Canadian border by Thursday. Models are hinting at a warm up late
next week with temperatures warming up above normal, so stay tuned to
the forecast. /KM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Very isolated showers are moving through N ID. Another
wave is moving down from Canada overnight. Latest 00Z CAM models
show minor if any precip. TAF sites have periods of mid clouds
and/or clear skies. Chance of showers Friday afternoon is along
the Canadian border in Idaho.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        77  55  82  58  82  55 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  74  54  80  57  79  54 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Pullman        74  51  81  56  78  52 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Lewiston       83  60  90  65  88  60 /   0   0   0  20  10   0
Colville       75  47  79  49  78  45 /  10   0   0  10  40  10
Sandpoint      72  51  77  52  76  50 /  10  10   0  20  40  20
Kellogg        71  55  79  60  74  55 /  10  10   0  30  30  10
Moses Lake     81  57  86  57  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      80  63  83  61  83  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           83  58  85  58  86  55 /   0   0  10  10  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$