Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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970 FXUS66 KOTX 270917 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 217 AM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A passing cold front continues to bring showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Mild and dry weather is likely for Friday followed by heat Saturday. The next system will move through on Sunday with more wind and thunderstorms. Mountain showers and seasonal temperatures will continue through the early week. Temperatures look to trend warmer and drier by the middle to the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Friday night: The upper level trough will continue to slide through the region. The chance of thunderstorms expands on Thursday to Eastern WA and the ID Panhandle, with lightning being the main concern. The timing of these storms looks to start late morning, continuing through the afternoon as they move east. Breezy winds will continue through the morning with increasing speeds into the afternoons. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be common across the Columbia Basin extending east towards Spokane and the Palouse. Humidity will be higher which will decrease the threat of fire concerns. Temperatures will be cooler today, with highs in the 70s. A ridge move in behind todays system, leading to a mild, dry Friday. A few lingering showers are expected over North Idaho through the morning. Highs will be in the upper 70s and 80s. Lows will be in the 50s. /KM Saturday through Thursday: Saturday will be mostly dry and mild thanks to a shortwave ridge. There is a small chance (20%) of showers at the Cascade crest and Okanogan Highlands Saturday afternoon thanks to deep moist southwest flow. Temperatures will be in the 80s to low 90s. Thunderstorm chances increase Sunday as a trough comes ashore. The moist system will need to be monitored to flash flooding potential, especially vulnerable burn scars. Winds behind the front passage will be breezy Sunday evening, but fire risk should be reduced thanks to the moist nature of this system. Precipitation chances stick around through late next week as the progressive pattern continues. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: An upper level trough of lower pressure will shift across the Inland Northwest tonight. Dynamics ahead of the trough will keep showers with embedded thunderstorms going near the Canadian border through the night. A band of developing cloud cover along the leading edge may produce light precipitation in the vicinity of KPUW and KLWS, but mostly only expecting overcast mid level clouds with precipitation developing further east of these airports. Westerly winds will remain gusty in the lee of the Cascades and out over the basin tonight through Thursday. Expect gusts of between 20-30 kts, especially through the morning into the afternoon with better mixing potential. The cold pool associated with the upper trough and diurnal heating in the afternoon will destabilize the atmosphere with widely scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms mainly across northeast Washington and into the Idaho Panhandle. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period. There is a 20 percent chance for thunderstorms across the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene corridor in the afternoon on Thursday. /SVH ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 72 49 76 54 83 59 / 40 10 0 0 0 10 Coeur d`Alene 68 48 74 53 81 57 / 70 20 0 0 0 10 Pullman 68 47 74 51 81 56 / 30 10 0 0 0 10 Lewiston 78 55 83 58 91 65 / 20 10 0 0 0 10 Colville 69 41 76 46 80 49 / 90 20 0 0 0 10 Sandpoint 64 46 71 49 78 53 / 100 30 10 0 0 10 Kellogg 63 50 71 55 79 59 / 80 20 0 0 0 20 Moses Lake 76 49 81 58 87 59 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 72 54 81 62 84 61 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 76 49 83 58 86 59 / 30 10 0 0 0 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$