Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
603 FXUS64 KOUN 240753 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 253 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Heat Advisory will be maintained for today. Key will continue to be how much mixing will occur and influence on dewpoints. With stronger south-southwest winds forecast today, lower dewpoints across western Oklahoma should effectively mix farther north and east today, and H85 temps are progd to be slightly less hot. This would yield lower heat indices but still near or slightly above 105 where advisory exists. In highly elevated moist axis, evident by satellite and radar, could yield some brief sprinkles through the morning hours. This activity will spread slowly west to east along and within a few counties north and south of I-40. While the radar may look busy, any rain that reaches the ground is currently expected to be light and very spotty. Scattered storms initiating late today across the high plains to our our north and west could make a run at northwest portions of Oklahoma tonight, but current probabilities are less than 20 percent that they will make it over the body of Oklahoma before dissipating. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Heat advisory will be issued for Tuesday across the entire forecast area, with an anticipated increase in dewpoints and hotter temperatures ahead of a late day/evening frontal boundary. Given some of the latest probability guidance on dewpoints, an excessive heat warning (sufficient area/duration of >110F heat indices) will be possible across central/north central Oklahoma as dewpoints pool south of the front. This will be a call in the coming couple of shifts, but will cover the hazard with an advisory for now. The issuance of heat advisories through Saturday appear likely, and an excessive heat warning for at least a portion of the forecast area cannot be ruled out. The hottest day is still looking to be Friday with veered flow and lower level thermal ridge ahead of another approaching frontal boundary. There still appears to be convective potential in the coming week. The first main episode will be Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning associated with a weak cold front that is forecast move over the northern half of Oklahoma. Highest chances for storms will be across north central portions of Oklahoma. Damaging wind gusts appear possible with the storms across far northern Oklahoma Tuesday evening. Temperatures behind the this front could average 5 to 10 degrees less hot for Wednesday into Thursday, but dewpoints will likely be higher, especially on Thursday. While portions of north central Oklahoma could see a reprieve from advisory level heat indices, it will still be uncomfortable with moderate to high risk WBGT levels. Another cold front is still progd to approach the region next weekend, providing the next main opportunity for scattered showers and storms, along with a brief and slight cool down. Model trends are to spread the mid and upper level ridge back to the east by this time, decreasing the northwesterly flow that will help steer the front into Oklahoma earlier in the week. This will yield somewhat low confidence that the front would make it much farther south than northern/northeast Oklahoma. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR conditions to continue. Weak front across the north will wash out this evening with south winds returning to the entire area. Otherwise, some mid high clouds overnight and expected to remain through the day tomorrow. Again could see some high-based cu develop during the day. South winds continue tomorrow, becoming gusty across the west with gusts approaching 25kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 98 77 99 76 / 10 0 10 20 Hobart OK 100 77 101 77 / 10 0 0 20 Wichita Falls TX 99 78 100 79 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 101 77 104 71 / 10 10 10 30 Ponca City OK 102 78 101 74 / 0 10 10 40 Durant OK 98 77 98 78 / 0 10 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ004>048- 050>052. Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013-017>020-024>032-039>043-045>048- 050>052. TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ083>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...30