Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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390 FXUS64 KOUN 232300 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 600 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Tonight... Convergence along a surface boundary north of I-40 is rather weak. A few CAMs hint at the possibility of a few weak updrafts/storms, but chances remain lower than 10 percent. Cu across the Texas Panhandle has better vertical development as well as the Raton Mesa area. Expected any storms that form across this region will dissipate before reaching western Oklahoma. Otherwise, the heat will slowly abate through the evening. Monday... A southerly wind will be somewhat stronger on Monday with deeper mixing expected and perhaps somewhat lower dewpoint temperatures during the afternoon. Still expect afternoon heat index values to reach around 100-105. The geography for the current Heat Advisory on Monday still looks good. Rain and storm chances for Monday will be at or below 5 percent. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Monday night and Tuesday... Dry and very warm temperatures are expected Monday night. A cold front will approach northern Oklahoma late Tuesday afternoon. By evening, widely scattered thunderstorms may develop along the boundary and move into parts of northern Oklahoma, with higher chances across north central Oklahoma. Thunderstorms will weakening through the evening but may reach parts of central Oklahoma by late evening or overnight. Before the front, another hot day is expected with heat index values near 105+. Will not issue a Heat Advisory for Tuesday at this time. Wednesday... High temperatures Wednesday may be slightly cooler behind a residual boundary in northern Oklahoma. It appears unlikely that this boundary will result in the development of afternoon storms in our area. However, upslope flow to our west is expected to result in scattered afternoon convection. Thunderstorms will likely weaken through the evening, but some storms may move into northwestern Oklahoma during the late evening/early overnight. Afternoon heat index values are expected to range from 105-110 Wednesday afternoon. Thursday... The upper ridge to our west, may weaken some as a shortwave trough moves across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Afternoon thunderstorms that develop along the higher terrain may reach parts of northwestern Oklahoma by late evening. Otherwise, Thursday will bring yet another day of rather hot temperatures and rather high heat index values (100-107). Friday and Saturday... Guidance remains consistent in tracking a shortwave trough across the northern Plains on Friday. As a result, a rather breezy southerly wind is expected. Afternoon humidity will remain fairly high, especially across the eastern half of Oklahoma. Triple digit heat and heat index values of 105 to near 110 are anticipated most of Friday afternoon. A cold front is expected to enter northern Oklahoma Friday night with a slight increase in storms chances across northern Oklahoma. Still a little unsure how quickly the effective front/boundary will push southward and will be somewhat dependent on the amount of convection that develops across Kansas Friday afternoon/evening. For now, will go with the idea of better rain chances near the front Saturday afternoon/evening with better chances across western and northern Oklahoma. As the front moves southward, it will also move closer to the center of an upper ridge and very warm 500mb temperatures. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR conditions to continue. Weak front across the north will wash out this evening with south winds returning to the entire area. Otherwise, some mid high clouds overnight and expected to remain through the day tomorrow. Again could see some high-based cu develop during the day. South winds continue tomorrow, becoming gusty across the west with gusts approaching 25kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 78 99 78 99 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 77 101 78 101 / 10 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 77 100 79 100 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 76 101 75 102 / 10 10 10 10 Ponca City OK 77 101 78 101 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 77 99 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for OKZ005>008- 011>013-017>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-008-012-013- 018>020-024>032-040>043-046>048-050>052. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...30