Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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358 FXUS64 KOUN 271907 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 207 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Storms are expected to move into portions of western and northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening. The environment ahead of these storms will be characterized by surface-based instability of ~2000 J/kg and weak deep-layer. Another afternoon of deep mixing will foster downdraft CAPE of over 1000 J/kg. That being said, any stronger storm that moves into this environment will have the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may continue through the overnight hours across northern Oklahoma, but are expected to weaken especially after sunset. The main hazard will be damaging wind gusts with these storms. A heat advisory will be in effect areawide Friday afternoon with heat indices of up to 110 F. Storms are again possible Friday afternoon across far northern Oklahoma. A few strong to severe storms are possible with large hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards. Bunker && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Prolonged heat will continue into the weekend, with heat headlines likely on Saturday. Thunderstorm chances will pick up Saturday afternoon and into the overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across the northern third/half of Oklahoma Sunday morning, with an outflow boundary/cold front located farther south. Somewhat cooler temperatures are expected behind the boundary Sunday afternoon, but humidity will be keep heat index values high areawide. The center of a mid-level ridge is expected to build over Oklahoma Sunday, so afternoon thunderstorm development along the residual surface boundary will be low. The ridge is expected to build eastward on Monday, but still close enough to bring dry conditions and triple digit heat to much of the area. The center of the ridge during this period is expected to be across the southeastern U.S. Ensemble guidance suggest 850 mb temperatures in the 25-30 C range, so triple digit heat will continue. With the ridge displaced to the east, evening thunderstorms will be possible across mainly northwest Oklahoma, but chances are still on the low side. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 There is a low probability (20 to 30%) of thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the evening over a portion of northwest and northern Oklahoma. The greatest threat of severe thunderstorms is north of our forecast area. However, there is the potential for strong to damaging wind gusts and large hail with storms that develop in the aforementioned areas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 76 101 79 99 / 10 0 0 20 Hobart OK 78 105 81 101 / 20 0 10 20 Wichita Falls TX 79 104 80 102 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 77 105 73 97 / 30 10 30 20 Ponca City OK 76 103 77 97 / 20 20 20 30 Durant OK 74 99 78 98 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ004>048- 050>052. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ021>023-027- 033>039-044>046-050>052. TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...01