Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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866 FXUS64 KOUN 262312 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 612 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Storms are possible this evening along a frontal boundary that should be located across southern and southwestern Oklahoma. The environment ahead of and along the boundary will be characterized by surface-based instability of ~3000 J/kg and deep-layer shear of 30 kts. Deep mixing this afternoon will foster downdraft CAPE of over 1500 J/kg. That being said, any stronger storm that initiates along the boundary will have the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Additional storms may develop along the Texas Panhandle overnight and into Thursday morning, and move across northern Oklahoma. The main hazard will be damaging wind gusts with these storms. A heat advisory will be in effect Thursday starting at 11 am and continuing through 9 pm for portions of western, southwestern, and southern Oklahoma, and western north Texas. Heat indices in these areas are expected to get between 105 and 110 F. Bunker && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Remnant thunderstorms from Kansas could move into portions of northern Oklahoma Thursday evening and into the overnight hours. The main hazard will be damaging winds as these storms move southward. A mid-level trough will move through the northern Plains and Great Lakes region Saturday and Sunday, pushing a cold front down into the southern Plains. There is still some model/ensemble disagreement on how far the front will push and how cool it will be behind the front. Nevertheless, cooler air is expected across the northern half of the area over the weekend. Thunderstorm chances are trending upwards north of I-40 along this boundary on Saturday into Sunday. The aforementioned cool down will be very brief as we will get back into triple digit heat indices by early next week. Bunker && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR ceilings this TAF period. Isolated/scattered showers/storms will be possible this evening, mainly across parts of southern OK and western north TX. Additional showers/storms will be possible starting later tonight/early Thursday and continue Thursday morning across parts of northern OK. E to SE winds are expected although strong, variable winds will be possible near thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 74 95 79 102 / 10 10 10 0 Hobart OK 75 100 79 105 / 20 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 77 100 80 104 / 20 0 0 0 Gage OK 73 97 79 105 / 20 20 10 0 Ponca City OK 70 92 77 103 / 0 10 10 0 Durant OK 75 96 76 99 / 20 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>016-019-020- 026-030>032. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ017- 018-021>025-027>029-033>048-050>052. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ021>023-027- 033>039-044>046-050>052. TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ083>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...25