![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
078 FXUS64 KOUN 261738 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Thunderstorms across Northeast Oklahoma may clip east central into southeast Oklahoma as they move southward this morning. Otherwise, dangerously hot conditions are expected once again across Oklahoma and north Texas. A boundary will advance southward and will be located near I-40 during the afternoon with weak surface confluence. Unfortunately, no noticeably cooler air mass is expected behind this boundary. Temperatures may actually be a little higher along and ahead of the boundary as 850 mb temperatures are progged to be higher than yesterday. As a result, forecast highs range from the upper 90s to upper 100s deg F. Combined with dew points in the low to mid 70s deg F, dangerous heat indices from 105 to 115 deg F are expected. In addition, winds will be lighter than yesterday, so the wet bulb globe temperature risk has a high probability to reach the extreme risk category. In the extreme risk category, working or exercising in direct sunlight will stress your body in about 15 minutes. Opted to expand to Excessive Heat Warning farther north to include the Oklahoma metro and points to the east given higher confidence that heat indices will reach 110 deg F or higher in this area. While synoptic-scale ascent appears nebulous, confluence along the boundary and daytime heating may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms in an uncapped atmosphere (which is in agreement with some convective-allowing and parameterized models). The area to watch development for would be near or just south of the boundary during the late afternoon and evening hours with a 20 to 30% chance. If thunderstorms develop, damaging wind gusts are possible given the large downdraft CAPE (~1600 J/kg). Large hail is also possible given the deep buoyancy, weak low-level shear, and modest effective bulk layer shear. Additional thunderstorms may also move in from the Texas panhandle later in the evening hours. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Thursday-Friday: The mid-level ridge will become elongated west- to-east across the southern half of the United States with northern Oklahoma on the southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow. The remnants of thunderstorm complexes may approach northern Oklahoma Thursday night into Friday morning and Friday night in Saturday morning. While the most intense part will likely stay to the north, some thunderstorms with strong winds may make into Oklahoma. Saturday-Sunday: A mid-level trough will move across the Great Lakes region with a trailing cold front advancing southward across the Plains. The cold front will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms with the highest chance across northern Oklahoma late Saturday into Sunday morning. There remains uncertainty/ensemble spread on how far south the cold front will advance and the magnitude of the cool down for Sunday. Probabilistic guidance has a 10 to 15 deg F range for high temperatures on Sunday (using the 10th and 90th percentiles). The magnitude of the cool down may end up being highly dependent on the amount of precipitation and cloud cover. Currently, the most likely scenario is northern Oklahoma seeing highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and western north Texas/southern Oklahoma seeing highs in the upper 90s and low 100s deg F. Monday-Tuesday: Any cool down will likely be brief as temperatures are forecast to rise early next week with a strengthening mid-level ridge and attendant low-level thermal ridge. Mahale && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of southwest and southern Oklahoma near a surface boundary. Strong to damaging wind gusts are possible with these storms. Winds are forecast to become predominantly east/southasterly overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 75 97 79 101 / 10 10 0 0 Hobart OK 75 103 81 103 / 30 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 78 103 81 103 / 20 0 0 0 Gage OK 73 101 79 105 / 20 10 20 0 Ponca City OK 71 94 78 103 / 10 10 10 0 Durant OK 75 97 78 99 / 20 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>016-019-020- 026-030>032. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ017- 018-021>025-027>029-033>048-050>052. TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...01