784
FXUS64 KOUN 162259
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
559 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Remnant MCV leftover from this morning`s convection continues to
drift slowly eastward across central OK, but is becoming less
defined and as of yet has not led to additional thunderstorm
development this afternoon. We will continue to monitor this
potential through peak heating, but as of now chances for
redevelopment are only ~20%.

Otherwise, low storm chances are also in place across northwest
Oklahoma this evening where isolated to scattered convection could
form across the High Plains and move into our area. However,
overall forcing and steering flow is rather weak, so unless
activity can organize a cold pool much of this will likely stay to
our west.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Storm chances will decrease and hot temperatures will continue for
the early portion of the week as upper ridging strengthens and
centers itself across the eastern US. Only exception may be across
northwestern Oklahoma early Wednesday as a cold front stalls in the
vicinity bringing with it a low chance for showers and
thunderstorms.

By later Wednesday and Thursday, a tropical wave will begin to lift
northwestward into Texas. This wave will be accompanied by a deep
moisture plume, with PWATs > 2" spreading as far north as central
Oklahoma and as far west as west Texas. Models still differ on the
track of the wave which will impact how far north precipitation
reaches, but as of now model consensus would suggest that the bulk
of the widespread heavier rainfall and risk for flooding will be
mainly across southeast, central, and west Texas with this
system. More isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible
around here on the northern periphery of the wave, with the best
chances for precipitation across southern Oklahoma and western
north Texas Wednesday night into Thursday. Given such anomalous
PWATs, very heavy rainfall would be possible in localized areas
where convection occurs.

This system could also bring a reprieve from the hotter
temperatures, depending on the track of the wave and how
extensive the cloud cover becomes. Highs may only reach into the
70s or low 80s in some areas Wednesday and Thursday if the cooler
end of guidance were to verify. Given the uncertainty, stuck with
the warmer NBM blend for now.

Rain chances will then decrease along with increasing temperatures
Friday into next weekend as the wave moves by and upper ridging
strengthens once again.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Storms over the High Plains to the west and northwest are a lot
less widespread than in recent days, and the probability of any of
these moving into the forecast area is rather low.

As the low-level jet increases this evening to 40 to 50 knots, we
expect to see non-convective low-level wind shear at many sites in
the early morning hours on Monday with the possible exception of
KDUA and KOKC/KOUN.

Some low clouds may move into southeast Oklahoma including KDUA
Monday morning with the potential of some MVFR ceilings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  91  74  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         74  94  73  91 /   0   0  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  75  92  74  90 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           71  96  71  94 /  20  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     73  94  74  91 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         73  91  72  89 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...26