Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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730 FXUS63 KPAH 171959 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 259 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A good chance of showers and storms through sunset, then lesser chances tonight and Tuesday. - Temperatures will be at or a few degree above normal through Wednesday, then mid 90s return for Thursday into the weekend. - A cold front could bring a decent chance of showers and storms to the region Sunday. Cooler temperatures would follow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 High pressure aloft centered along the Atlantic Coast will allow weak disturbances to lift northward through the Quad State through Tuesday. One such disturbance is helping a large cluster of showers and thunderstorms to lift northward through southeast Missouri this afternoon. Lesser disturbances will keep showers in the forecast through the night in the east and then more widely scattered showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday. For the rest of the afternoon, most guidance struggles to bodily push the convection north and especially east through the entire region, so similar to yesterday we will expect the precipitation to become more scattered with time and northeastward extent. Torrential downpours and lightning will be the primary concerns, but a few stronger storms could produce some isolated 30-40 mph winds. Tonight, especially after midnight, the focus for showers shifts over the Pennyrile and southwest Indiana. A thunderstorm will remain possible, but it should mostly be showers. Widely scattered showers and storms are expected in the heat of the day Tuesday. A few stragglers may continue into Tuesday evening, then we dry out for the rest of the week. The upper high will build westward Wednesday into Thursday and then linger overhead into Saturday. We will continue to see partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies on Wednesday which will help to hold the heat off for one more day. However, with full sunshine Thursday through Saturday, the heat will definitely be on. Expect high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s each afternoon. Fortunately, it appears that dewpoints will be mixing down into the middle 60s over much of the area each afternoon. This should keep the humidity in check, with heat indices only a degree or two higher than the temperatures. We will likely see heat indices reach 100 in a few locations each afternoon, but it may be limited enough in time and space to keep a Heat Advisory from being issued. We will have to monitor trends in the dewpoint guidance closely as we go through the week. There is some light at the end of the tunnel. Most guidance weakens the ridge and pushes a cold front through the region Sunday. This would bring a decent chance of convection and eventually some less hot air. Not sure how confident to be in these trends, but will run with the consensus for now. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Another round of thunderstorms is lifting north toward KCGI and KPAH, and should impact both terminals this afternoon with gusty winds and MVFR to IFR conditions. The convection should struggle to make it to the other sites this afternoon, but isolated to scattered showers could impact KEVV and KOWB tonight, into the morning hours. Outside of thunderstorms, conditions should remain VFR. South winds will gust 15-20kts throughout the region this afternoon or until thunderstorms arrive. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DRS AVIATION...DRS