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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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321 FXUS63 KPAH 300456 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1156 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory remains in effect today across portions of the region for heat index values peaking between 105 to 109 degrees. - Shower and storm chances will be on the increase today as a cold front slowly pushes south. The greatest risk peaks between 8PM to 1AM, especially across portions of southeast Missouri and far western Kentucky. A few isolated severe storms remain possible with damaging winds, small hail, torrential downpours, and lightning being the main concern. Localized flash flooding issues are also possible. - Relief from the heat and humidity is in store Sunday into Monday before turning unpleasant again in time for the 4th of July. An unsettled pattern with daily chances for showers and storms also begins the middle of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Updated aviation section for 06z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 About as hot and muggy as advertised today with dewpoints pushing close to 80 across WKY and SEMO and in the mid to upper 70s across southern Illinois and Southwest Indiana. Heat index values are working towards 105-109. The cu that is forming overhead is fairly sparse and rooted about 4500-5500 ft and limited by a capping inversion just above that layer. Surface front near Kansas City is starting to show signs of better convective initiation and we may still develop activity in the Ozark Mountain region by 3-4 pm as well. The best chance for thunder this evening still looks to be over southeast Missouri from about 5-11 pm. Some of that activity will likely translate eastward into the rest of the quad-state region but the chances diminish little by little as you go further east. Deep and low level shear is minimal but relatively strong instability and water loading may lead to some damaging wind potential with any thunderstorms that form. Precipitable water values are 2.2" to 2.3" so very heavy rainfall will also be a factor with any storm through tonight. Surface "colder than it was" front works through early Sunday morning and steadily lowers our dewpoints through the day. Monday still looks pretty pleasant before moisture return starts to ramp up again on Tuesday. By Wednesday and persisting through the end of the week a general troughiness sets up to our northwest. This works with the heat and humidity to bring an unsettled pattern to the region with persistent rain and thunderstorm chances. The 12z guidance suite sends a front through Friday night that starts to clear things out. I think its fair to suspect a period or two of modest severe weather threat may emerge between Wednesday and Friday with wind the leading threat. Heavy rain and flooding may also be a concern. In general though there is still not any one particular spot that you would key in on as a particular threat, and any flooding risk may just end up a function of wherever sees repeated activity. Outdoor plans for the 4th of July holiday still look to be challenged by rain and storms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Isolated to scattered shra possible through 12z, with an isolated tsra not out of the question at mainly KCGI/KPAH/KMVN. Tsra chance now too low to include in TAF. VFR conditions expected with mainly mid clouds overnight, with clouds scattering out through the morning hours. Southwest winds around 5kts will become northwest through 12z with the passage of a cold front. After 12z, northwest to north winds will be 5-10 kts. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE... DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...RST