Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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081 FXUS61 KPBZ 260752 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 352 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening with a crossing cold front. Isolated flooding is also possible with heavy rainfall. Temperatures will trend upwards into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening. - SPC has maintained the Slight Risk for severe weather, and WPC has continued the Marginal risk for flooding. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A trough and associated cold front cross the region today, with a late afternoon/evening FROPA. Some convection during the mid- afternoon to early evening could be strong to severe if conditions permit with damaging wind gusts and hail the primary threats. The severe threat may evolve into a flooding threat as the day progresses, especially late evening with ongoing convection. With PWATS well above the climatological average (1.65" to 1.90") and training showers and storms under quasi-zonal flow, swaths of 1 to 2 inches are not out of the question. The severe weather and flash flood threat will decrease after midnight as the shortwave tracks east. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather returns. - Temperatures increase Friday into the weekend. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Dry conditions resume Thursday as high pressure builds in across the region. A warming trend in temperatures is forecasted Friday and into the weekend as h500 heights approach 890dm. This combined with increasing low-level moisture will result in apparent temperatures back up in the mid 90s by the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Shower and thunderstorm chances return Saturday into Sunday with the next low pressure system. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ensembles show about a 50% chance in general of highs hitting 90F on Saturday. There`s a good chance most locations will see apparent temperatures back in the 90s with Tds back up in the upper 60s / low 70s. Shower and thunderstorm chances return with increased instability and the approach and passage of another frontal system Saturday into Sunday. Dry conditions and near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast early next week as high pressure resumes control. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR is expected through the morning ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and associated surface cold front. Mid and high level clouds will continue to stream across the area ahead of the wave. Expect a scattered cumulus layer to develop by late morning/early afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by mid afternoon as the shortwave/cold front approach and cross the region. It appears the most favorable timing for thunderstorms is between 20Z and 00Z. Included TEMPO groups in the taf sites for the most favorable timing at any particular airport. Strong wind gusts and hail are possible in these storms, and additional details can be added to the tafs as uncertainty decreases later in the day. MVFR is expected as the thunderstorms end, with a period of showers. Eventual IFR is possible overnight with low level moisture in place. .Outlook... Restrictions in stratus/fog are possible through early Thursday. VFR is then expected through Friday under high pressure. Restriction and showers/thunderstorm potential returns Friday night with a crossing warm front. Restrictions are expected at times Saturday and Saturday night with showers and thunderstorms ahead of and along a crossing cold front. VFR returns Sunday under high pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hefferan NEAR TERM...Cermak/Hefferan SHORT TERM...Hefferan LONG TERM...Hefferan AVIATION...WM