512
FXUS65 KPIH 152029
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
229 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
As expected, winds have increased substantially this afternoon
across eastern Idaho. Numerous wind gusts in the 50-65 mph range
have already been observed across parts of the Snake Plain, Arco
Desert and up into the Lemhi Highlands. These windy conditions will
continue throughout the afternoon and into the early evening as a
potent U/L trough pushes into the Pacific NW. High Wind Warnings
remain out for the Arco Desert with Wind Advisories in the Snake
Plain, Lost River Valley and Lemhi Highlands all through 9PM this
evening. Afternoon satellite imagery shows increasing cloud cover
across the Central Mountains and expecting to see coverage increase
and expand to include all of the area by this evening. Still
expecting precipiation to stay north of the area however a few very
light, isolated showers can`t be ruled out across the far northern
parts of the CWA.

Cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow as the aforementioned
trough continues to push further south with H5 heights continuing
to decrease. Valley highs tomorrow will be in the 60s with maybe
a few spots topping 70, barely. Mountain locations will be in the
50s and 60s which is about 10 degrees below normal for mid-June.
Winds will remain breezy but should be below any headline levels.
Any precip will likely hold off until very late Sunday into the
early morning hours on Monday. McKaughan

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday
With the low moving through quicker, we look to cut down on the
timeframe where we will see mountain snow across the central
mountains and along the Montana border. The bulk of what falls now
should be done by Monday afternoon, although with the potential
for thundersnow...we could see some brief additional
accumulations. The current forecast tries to produce some light
accumulations around 6000ft in the central mountains in the
morning, but the bulk of it will be above 7000ft. Total
accumulation of up to 4" is possible in the central mountains with
locally higher amounts on the highest peaks and ridges. Amounts
are much, much lower once get to Monida Pass and the Island Park
area where less than 1" is now expected. There is still a 40-60%
chance of more than 1" though based on the probability forecasts.
Once you get to the Big Holes, the chance of any accumulating snow
is barely hitting 50%. Temperatures now appear to be coldest on
Monday only, with highs barely hitting the 60s except in a few
spots. 30s and 40s are on tap for the mountains, so be ready for
definitely-not-normal June conditions in the backcountry. It will
be breezy, which will add to "chill" in the air. We MIGHT briefly
hit WIND ADVISORY criteria across the Arco Desert and INL, and
LAKE WIND ADVISORY levels on American Falls Reservoir. With
multiple weak storms crossing our part of the country, it will
remain unsettled with almost daily low-end chances of showers or
thunderstorms somewhere across eastern Idaho. Temperatures will
quickly rebound, with 80s and low 90s possible again by the end of
next week. Keyes

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy conditions will persist into this evening. Gusts of
30-40kts are still possible at PIH and IDA, with 25-35kts at BYI,
and 20-30kts at DIJ. Even SUN will see winds 15-25kts, including
gusts through sunset. It does look like some mid level clouds
develop across the area, but we aren`t expecting any precipitation
or thunderstorms with that. Keyes

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very strong winds behind the front will start in the morning and
last all day today. Breezy to windy conditions continue on Sunday.
The air mass settling in is cold and temperatures will drop to
below normal today, then well below normal for highs on Mon. This
should keep humidity from getting very low. Showers will be
limited on Sun as well. Messick

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A flood warning remains in effect for the Teton River at Driggs
through Sunday afternoon now. River levels have dropped just below
flood stage but will keep it going for another day since it`s just
below flood stage. Similarly, the Snake River at Heise remains near,
but just below, flood stage. McKaughan

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ052.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ053-054-067-068.

&&

$$