199
FNUS75 KPSR 212303
FWSPSR

Spot Forecast for Ghost...DFFM
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
403 PM MST Fri Jun 21 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1600 MST on June 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

Primary concerns to the fire area will be the potential for
an isolated thunderstorm and more so thunderstorm outflow winds,
that will be capable of creating a sudden increase in wind speeds
as well as sudden wind shifts. Isolated thunderstorm chances
today will extend from now through around 2000MST this evening.
Odds of seeing outflow winds in excess of 35 mph is around 50% and
the favored direction to see an outflow is from the south to east.
The ambient conditions will continue to favor south to southwest
until shifting east to southeast around 1800-1900MST. The east to
southeast wind this evening will be capable of gusting upwards of
25-30 mph through midnight. Winds should subside overnight with a
persistent east, to northeast drainage, through Saturday morning.
Heading into Saturday afternoon ambient winds should veer
southerly with speeds remaining light. The potential for
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon will be slightly higher than
today, up to 30-40%, beginning as early as 1300-1400MST. However,
cloud cover may limit the thunderstorm potential. Temperatures
Saturday will not be as hot as today and moisture will be on the
rise over the next 24 hours. Minimum RH values will go from 15-20%
today to ~25% tomorrow and tonight`s recovery will be to around
45-50%.

...Thunderstorms imply gusty winds...

Note...Additional Fire Weather Forecast information can be found
in the Area Forecast Discussion. See product PHXAFDPSR.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
CWR.................6 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 109.
Min humidity........15-20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 13 to 18 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms tonight.
CWR.................6 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 85.
Max humidity........45-50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 17 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................17 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 105.
Min humidity........21-26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 11 mph shifting to the
                    south in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...SB
Requested by...IC Perrone
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416498.0/PSR
.DELDT 06/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Jabrams@dffm.az.gov