469
FXUS65 KPUB 271105
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
505 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of thunderstorms expected today with strong to
  marginally severe storms possible.

- Scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms expected
  each day Friday through Wednesday.

- Strong storms will be possible each day, with Sunday being of
  higher concern for severe weather potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 354 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Active moisture plume will remain over CO today with another
shortwave evident in PV fields tracking across the region this
afternoon, with a little earlier timing than yesterday. Conceptually
the strongest deep layer shear (approaching 40 kts) supportive of
storm organization will be across northern portions of the area
where the flow aloft is a little stronger, and across the far
eastern plains where surface winds on the east side of the surface
trough axis are more southerly. However with the surface trough
progged to kick eastward in the afternoon this would bode for at
least some minor drying of surface dew points across the I-25
corridor. However atmosphere remains very moist with PWATs running
around 0.75 to 1.5 inches which is around 150% of normal. Thus any
downslope flow may not result in much drying with dew points likely
to stay in the 50s to around 60 across far eastern areas. CAPE
values off HREF means show 750-1500 J/kg with highest values across
the far eastern plains. The main risk will be gusty winds and
marginally severe hail across most of the area today with perhaps a
few stronger storms with larger hail and damaging gusts possible
across the far eastern plains where SPC has a slight risk.
Convergence along the surface trough axis as well as the 2 divides
(Palmer and Raton) may be the primary focus for stronger convection
today. Localized flash flooding will be a concern for burn scars and
areas with susceptible soil conditions given continued high PWATs,
however models QPFs keep the signal for heavier precip totals
farther west and therefore more localized in our area. Therefore do
not have enough confidence to issue a flash flood watch along the
Continental Divide at this point.

Otherwise, went close to a couple degrees cooler than national model
blends for highs today given more cloud cover which may shave a few
degrees off highs from yesterday.  Tonight, convection looks to
decrease a little earlier, though the Continental Divide may see
isolated showers persist past midnight. Kept low temperatures on the
warmer side of model blends and guidance. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 354 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Friday - Wednesday: For the long term period, a rinse and repeat
forecast is in store for south central and southeastern
Colorado. Messy westerly to southwesterly flow will prevail, as
embedded short waves push over the region within the overall
flow. Along with that, moisture to some extent, is expected to
remain in place each day. With the waves and associated
heightened forcing, along with the moisture in place, scattered
rain showers and thunderstorms are anticipated each day, with
the greatest coverage of precipitation during the afternoon and
early evening hours. Showers and thunderstorms will initially
start along the higher terrain during the early afternoon hours,
and then expand across the valleys and plains during the mid to
late afternoon hours. Given the moisture and at least modest
instability in place each day, a strong thunderstorm or two
can`t be ruled each afternoon, with strong winds and small hail
the expected hazards. Along with that, Sunday is of greater
concern for some severe weather as well across the plains, as
abundant moisture, instability, and shear overlap, with expected
hazards from any severe storms being severe wind gusts and
large hail. In addition, flash flooding will be a concern with
any slower moving thunderstorms throughout this period, given
the moisture in place across the region. With all of that said,
any showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to lessen in
coverage and intensity through the mid to late evening hours as
any instability present decreases. As for temperatures, the heat
will continue, with much of the area remaining around and
slightly above seasonal values for late June to early July. A
cold front will push southward late Friday into early Saturday,
which will help to cool Saturday to slightly below seasonal
temperatures, though mostly across the eastern plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 354 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Active moisture plume aloft will keep a good chance for VCSH/VCTS at
all three TAF sites today with the peak period for impacts at the
TAF sites between 20z-03z. These will be difficult to time but could
produce gusty outflow winds up to 40 kts and brief MVFR vis with
+TSRA if storms directly impact the terminals. Winds will become
dominated by erratic outflow winds through the evening before winds
decrease overnight with partial clearing expected towards Fri AM.
-KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...KT