080
FXUS65 KPUB 242051
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
251 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat advisory continues tomorrow for El Paso, Pueblo, and
  eastern Fremont counties and has expanded to include the lower
  Arkansas River Valley.

- Isolated afternoon and evening high based showers storms to
  remain possible.

- Monsoon-like tap of moisture to increase rain chances
  Wednesday through Friday. Excessive rainfall possible with
  stronger storms Wednesday and Thursday.

- Cold front Friday evening will knock temperatures down to more
  normal levels for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 236 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates weak west
to northwest flow in place across the region, with upper level ridging
continuing to build across the Southern Rockies and into Central Rockies.
Blended total precipitable water imagery is indicating PWATs running
between 125 to 150 percent of normal across south central Colorado and
southeast Colorado at this time, with current regional radars indicating
isolated to widely scattered showers, and a few embedded thunderstorms,
across the region, with the best coverage over the higher terrain.
Temperatures have soared under the building ridge with current readings
in the 90s to lower 100s across the Plains, and mainly in the 70s and
80s across the higher terrain, save for locales that are seeing some
temporary relief from outflow from high based showers, as KAFF was 81F
at 2pm with gusty northwest outflow winds of 30 mph.

No big changes in the forecast for tonight and through the day on Tuesday,
as upper level ridging continues to build into the Central Rockies, with
flow aloft becoming more northwest, though remaining weak. With the current
moisture in place and convective temps being reached, should see isolated
high based showers and storms develop through the early evening, with
convection waning and clearing skies for the late evening and overnight
hours. Convection to remain high based with main threats from said storm
being gusty outflow winds to between 50 and 60 mph, especially across the
eastern Plains, where SPC meso analysis has DCAPE of 1000-1800 j/kg.

With the more northwest flow aloft tomorrow, model data suggests the
best available moisture will be shunted south across the southern
tier of Colorado, which will keep mainly isolated afternoon showers
and storms mainly west of the Front Range. Warm temperatures under
the building ridge will continue to support well above seasonal
temperatures and will continue Heat Advisories for El Paso, Pueblo
and eastern Fremont counties, with highs remaining in the mid 90s
to the lower 100s, and have expanded the Heat Advisory further east
to include the lower Arkansas River Valley with highs of 102 to 106
on Tuesday. Temperatures elsewhere will be at to slightly warmer
than today`s readings.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 236 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Tuesday night through Friday...Upper ridge of high pressure located
over the Four Corners Tue eve will gradually slide east and flatten
through Thu, ahead of another low pressure system crossing the
Pacific NW. A monsoon-like plume of moisture trapped under the high
will bring a daily shot of convection across the cwa, and forecast
PW amounts are two standard deviations above normal, which means
that there is plenty of moisture to tap into that could be realized
at the surface with stronger storms. The flow aloft will be very
light on Wed, so slow-moving storms will be a threat and WPC has
painted the entire area under a Marginal risk for excessive
rainfall. On Thu as the ridge flattens westerly flow aloft begins to
increase slightly, so even though excessive rainfall will continue
to be a threat, the hope is that storms will be moving somewhat and
will push off to the east through the afternoon and evening. By Fri
the low system to the north will push across MT along the US and
Canada border, forcing a cold front south into CO. This front is
expected to reach the southeastern plains during the evening.

As for temps, though precipitation chances increase significantly
over the higher terrain and I-25 Corridor for Wed and Thu, the heat
bubble will persist into Fri until the front arrives. Plan on highs
each day in the 50s for the high valleys, which is right around
normal, to the 90s to around 100F for the plains which is around 10
degrees above normal.

Saturday and Sunday...The cold front passage Fri evening will swing
surface winds around to an easterly direction overnight into Sat
morning, pushing llvl moisture west towards the eastern mts and I-25
Corridor. Scattered showers and thunderstorms with enhanced cloud
cover is anticipated across much of the forecast area through the
day Saturday, and high temps will likely end up being in the mid 70s
to mid 80s which is normal for this time of year and much more
reasonable. On Sunday the surface flow becomes more southerly, which
will allow a slight increase in maximum temperatures through the
day, but there will still be an enhanced chance for convection
through at least the first half of the day, then tapering off
through the evening across the far eastern plains. Highs on Sunday
are forecast to warm to around 80F for the high valleys, and 80s to
around 90F for the plains.

Monday...Increasing west-southwest flow aloft will help increase dry
and warm downslope flow across the forecast area to start the next
work week. This will decrease precipitation chances as well as
bumping up max temps across the eastern plains to about 10 degrees
above normal. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next
24 hours. Well above seasonal temperatures and enough residual
moisture will support isolated high based showers and storms
across south central and southeast Colorado this afternoon and
evening. With a low probability of storms affecting the terminals,
have kept VCSH in place for this afternoon. If showers and storms
can develop or move near the terminals, the main threats would
be gusty outflow winds to around 45kts. Convective clouds to
diminish through the evening, with mainly clear skies expected
into the overnight hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ083>086-
093-097-098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MW