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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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124 FXUS65 KPUB 190524 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1124 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Non zero threat of thunderstorms and a few landspouts in Baca County this evening. - Widespread rain showers and thick clouds across the eastern plains Wednesday, with some thunder over the mountains. - Another warming trend late week into the weekend. - Uptick in thunderstorms over the mountains late week as southerly flow picks up some subtropical moisture. - A return to around 100 degree readings across the plains early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 641 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Quick update to the forecast database due to the expiration of the Red Flag Warning for today. Incorporated latest HRR and RUC model data as well as observations. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 242 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Rest of Today... Relatively quiet weather for the first part of today across the CWA, with the front already moving to our south. High temperatures will be cooler than yesterday, with mid-80s to low-90s over the southeast plains and low-80s across most of the higher terrain. Winds will be occasionally gusty but less than yesterday, and humidity over the plains has increased behind the front enough to abate critical fire weather conditions for now. However, the Red Flag Warning will remain this afternoon over the San Luis Valley, as the humidity values out there are still low and were mostly unaffected from the passing front. Our potentially more active weather will happen this evening, as the front stalls out just south of our forecast area. The positioning of the front will be crucial to how much activity we actually see, as convective models show a line of thunderstorms forming along the boundary and intensifying. The majority of models currently show the convection initiating south of our area and largely staying there, however a shift in position just a few miles north could put some storms in Baca County. For any stronger storms that do manage to form over our far southeast plains, enhanced heavy rain, some hail, and even a few landspouts will be possible. Tonight-Wednesday... With post-frontal moisture and lingering convection, wet and unsettled conditions will persist overnight and into early Wednesday. Scattered showers and heavy rainfall will spread across parts of the eastern plains, becoming more widespread the closer you get to the KS border. A few stronger storms will be possible, mainly over our far southeast counties. Precipitation will continue to build west through the night and into the early morning hours, with rain moving over I-25 around sunrise. Showers will start to decrease in coverage closer to the mountains as we move into Wednesday, but a low, thick cloud layer will last into the day. High temperatures on Wednesday will be around 15 degrees cooler than Tuesday, possibly even cooler in some areas thanks to extensive cloud cover. The mountain valleys will not see the full impact of the front, remaining in the high-70s to low-80s. Meanwhile, the moist post-frontal airmass will remain in place with easterly upslope over the plains. More stratiform-type rain showers will spread over most of the eastern plains throughout the day, and though there could be an embedded rumble of thunder, instability will likely be too low. Southwest flow aloft should assist in some weak thunderstorm formation over the mountains, with some locally heavy rainfall being the main concern. Storms over the mountains should stay sub-severe, though locally heavy rainfall could have some impacts in more vulnerable locations. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 242 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Temperatures gradually warm again through late week as southerly flow ahead of the next Pacific trough brings rising heights aloft over CO. The warm up will be somewhat mitigated by an influx in subtropical moisture as the H7-H5 layer specific humidities increase to 6+ g/kg. This will bring an uptick in thunderstorms to the mountains especially Thursday and Friday. Day time humidity values will increase as well which should put an end to critical fire weather conditions for a while, but raise concerns for heavy rainfall on burn scars. Mean CAPE values off national model blends are highest on Thursday ranging from 500-1000 J/kg in the 50-75th percentiles and ranges. They drop around 250 J/kg for Friday. Storm motions will be to the north due to deep southerly flow aloft. A few strong storms will be possible over the mountains where deep layer shears will be around 30+ kts both days. Hail under 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible. Best forcing will be late Friday as the dampening western U.S. upper trough ejects across NW CO. This may keep some showers and isolated thunderstorms going most of the night across the mountains though intensities will be weaker with loss of heating during the overnight hours. Drier and warmer weather returns for the weekend into next week as the upper ridge aloft builds over the southern/central U.S. Rockies. Temperatures will be back up to around 100 across the plains for Monday and Tuesday. Probabilities for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms gradually decrease though winds look to stay below critical fire weather thresholds. -KT && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1123 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will remain relatively light overnight, and then start to increase during the early afternoon. Mid level clouds will start to increase during the day Wednesday, with scattered showers developing within the San Luis Valley tomorrow afternoon. Confidence does remain low though on ultimate timing and coverage of showers around the TAF site, with VCSH conditions possibly lasting all Wednesday afternoon and evening. With that said though, any showers will be relatively light, though will be capable of briefly reducing visibility - some lightning can not be ruled out with any stronger precipitation cells. KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected extremely early for this TAF period, with MVFR conditions developing quickly overnight and persisting through most of this TAF period, primarily due to low clouds. Low to mid level clouds will rapidly develop overnight as moist upslope flow materializes and persist through this TAF period, keeping the low to mid level clouds in place through the end of this TAF period, though some minor lifting of clouds is anticipated during Wednesday afternoon. Scattered pockets of drizzle to light rain are also expected to develop overnight around the TAF sites, with a period of steady drizzle/light rain likely during the mid overnight hours into the mid to late morning hours. Thereafter, scattered rain showers are anticipated throughout the day Wednesday, though confidence is low in ultimate timing and coverage of showers, with VCSH conditions possibly persisting all Wednesday afternoon and evening. With that said though, any showers will be relatively light, though will be capable of briefly reducing visibility - some lightning can not be ruled out with any stronger precipitation cells. Otherwise, winds will remain relatively light during this TAF period, with occasional sporadic gusts during the afternoon hours Wednesday, especially for KCOS. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...MOORE SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...HODANISH