706
FXUS62 KRAH 260546
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
145 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging will build into the area Sunday. A cold front
will approach Sunday night and move through the region Monday night.
Dry high pressure will settle into the region toward the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 902 PM Saturday...

Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue to pop up across
portions of the central Piedmont, Sandhills and southern Coastal
Plain. At one point this evening, there were numerous outflow
boundaries across the Triangle, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain. Little
if any storms developed over the northwest Piedmont/Triad and
northern Coastal Plain. Satellite imagery reveals a weak mid-level
circulation over the southern Piedmont to Charlotte area. This
shortwave trough should continue to progress south and east
overnight. As this happens, convection should start to collapse
south and east into late tonight, dissipating overnight. The latest
HRRR suggests this may be the case, though the southern Piedmont has
not really been worked over in the sense of there still being some
SBCAPE present. As such, lingering/new outflows may spawn new
isolated/scattered storm cells across our southern areas for the
next 2-4 hours. Activity should largely be sub-severe, though a few
stronger cells could produce heavy rain and strong wind gusts.
Convection should wane after midnight as the shortwave moves east
and subsidence ensues. Lows should hover in the low to mid/upper
60s. Patchy fog could develop almost anywhere in central NC, though
may be more prone in areas of Raleigh and the eastern Sandhills,
where rainfall amounts were higher.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Saturday...

Sunday will start off dry across the area, some might see patchy fog
early morning but will clear shortly after sunrise. By the afternoon
an increase of showers and thunderstorms is expected. As the
enhanced shortwave trough progresses east from the IL/IN area during
the day, by the afternoon it is expected to be on the door step of
the Appalachian Mountains by late evening. Isolated to scattered
storms are expected to begin to evolve across the region late
afternoon. With loss of heating the severe threat is expected to
diminish through the overnight hours Sunday.  HiRes CAMs are showing
a bit more consistency with timing of the first round of storms
moving across the region late Sunday night through early Monday
morning. While this round of storms are expected to move across the
region swiftly, PW values are expected to be above normal (1.5-
2.0inches), thus some heavy rain could cause some minor flooding in
poor drainage areas. Drivers should be be extra cautious driving in
these storms at night. CAPE values will be lower than what is
expected with Mondays storms, but some storms could be strong. Kept
PoPs higher across the Northern Piedmont region, but chance PoPs are
generally across the region. Sunday will be warm, 5-7 degrees above
normal. Highs will be in the mid/upper 80s some areas reaching 90,
lows will range from upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 AM Sunday...

Dry weather is expected during this period with generally low
humidity and seasonable to slightly below normal temps. The longwave
trough axis will still be to our W Tue, and while there may be minor
waves shifting through SC and SE NC, much of the deeper moisture
will have pushed E of our area or even offshore. Will keep a slight
chance of an afternoon shower or storm in our far SE, as large scale
models show the front slowing or lingering over our SE sections
where surface temps and dewpoints are apt to be elevated. A dry NW
flow will keep the column dry and stable Tue night through Wed,
although the notably cooler air will still be held up W of the
mountains until a secondary reinforcing dry cold front drops SE
through our area late Wed through Wed night. Behind this front,
dewpoints will drop even more, bottoming out in the 40s to low 50s
Thu/Fri as surface high pressure sourced from central Canada builds
in from the NW and N. By Sat, both temps and dewpoints will start to
rebound as the mid-upper longwave trough shifts out over the NW
Atlantic and amplified mid level ridging builds in from the west.
Low level thicknesses will rebound as the surface high starts to
shift off the Mid Atlantic coast, and thus temps will edge closer to
normal Sat. And with the onset of southeasterly low level flow and
an uptick in PWs, a few late-day showers may pop up across the S and
W, and will include just slight chances there. Temps will still be
near to slightly above normal Tue and near normal Wed, before
dropping to a few degrees below normal Thu/Fri with low humidity and
lots of sunshine. Near normal readings should return Sat. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM Saturday...

24-hour TAF period: Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in
mainly southern and eastern portions of central NC (including FAY
and RWI) through this evening. Brief gusty winds and sub-VFR
conditions may occur with any storm. Otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail through 06z. Then as skies become mostly clear and winds
very light to calm, patchy fog may develop overnight into early
Sunday morning, resulting in MVFR or IFR visibility restrictions.
The best chance for this looks to be in the east (including RDU, FAY
and RWI) where locally heavy rain fell today. More isolated
to widely scattered showers and storms are possible tomorrow
afternoon. A more organized line of showers and storms may begin to
move into the Triad (including INT and GSO) around 21z-00z.

Outlook: Showers and storms may continue on Sunday evening
into Sunday night, then again on Monday afternoon and evening.
The most widespread coverage looks to be on Monday. Category
restrictions will be possible with any thunderstorm, and Monday`s
storms could bring especially gusty winds. By Tuesday, VFR
conditions are expected under high pressure, which will last into
Thursday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kren
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Danco/Green