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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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688 FXUS62 KRAH 281856 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 255 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off the New England coast tonight. A hotter and more humid airmass will become established across the area this weekend. A cold front will approach the area Sunday bringing the next chance of storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 243 PM Friday... High pressure to the north centered just of the New England coast is resulting in good onshore flow from the west this afternoon. A weak frontal boundary remains to the south and expected to wobble north this afternoon and overnight. As such a few isolated showers and storms developing along the coast could impact the Sandhills region later this afternoon. Later overnight as the warm front lifts to the north there is a chance that storms could develop across the region, with the best chance over the western Piedmont. Low stratus could develop early morning across the region with pockets of fog producing lower visibilities in some areas. Easterly flow this afternoon will shift overnight to a more south-southwesterly flow by Saturday morning. Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the upper 80s NW to low/mid 90s elsewhere. Lows overnight will generally be in the low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Friday... Hot and mainly dry high pressure will be in firm control again Saturday. This will mean high heat and humidity again. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for much of the region as heat indices are forecast into the 100`s east of the Triad. Actual highs will reach 92-98. There is only a slight chance of a late day storm along the Sandhills and SE Coastal Plain and in the far western Piedmont. Lows will struggle to fall under 80 many areas Saturday night with little to no showers expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 255 PM Friday... Hot and stormy Sun/Sun night, then generally quiet and mostly dry through the work week. Near normal temps Mon-Tue will once again give way to intensifying heat for July 4th and into the weekend. Sun-Sun night: Expect hot and muggy conditions with high rain chances as a potent mid level trough deepens with a positively tilt as it shifts through far SE Canada/St Lawrence Valley into the Northeast states. Just ahead of this trough axis and its associated surface front, anomalously high PWs near 2.5" will spread in areawide, with mid level moistening and cooling resulting in an erosion of mid level stability, as steepening lapse rates through the column and prefrontal afternoon heating push SBCAPE to 1000-2500 J/kg, according to the latest LREF. Mid level flow and deep layer bulk shear will remain somewhat muted much of the day, however, peaking at just 15-25 kts, highest near the border Sun evening/night as the stronger cyclonic flow aloft dips into our latitude with trough axis passage. This will also result in the better upper divergence holding off until after dark, and this lack of temporal juxtapositioning of buoyancy and dynamic forcing for ascent could limit our severe threat. But given the forecast SBCAPE and deep mixing with elevated DCAPE, the threat of a few strong wet microbursts seems realistic. Will continue with high pops, peaking at likely at some point over the entire CWA. Sun is likely to be another day of dangerous heat, with very warm morning temps and highs mostly in the mid 90s, giving heat indices again around 100- 105 over most of the area. The surface front should drop slowly SE through the area (more likely, jumping into a prefrontal trough or convective outflow) Sun night, with some lower dewpoints expected to start arriving into the north sections overnight. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Mon-Fri: The front and deep moisture may still be lingering across southern sections Mon morning, so will maintain good chance to low likely pops there early. But as the front settles to our S and drier air works in from the N amid briefly gusty NE winds Mon, and within ridging both at the surface and aloft, expect a trend to no pops late Mon, lasting through mid week as high pressure noses in from the N. Expect temps to be near to even slightly below normal Mon/Tue, with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s, making it feel quite pleasant. Then, as the mid level trough extending down through the Mid Atlantic early Mon shifts offshore and ridging builds further from the S Plains/Lower Miss Valley into the Carolinas, with the surface ridge pushing out over the open NW Atlantic, rising humidity and thicknesses will bring a return to oppressive heat. Highs should be in the low to mid 90s Wed and mid 90s to near 100 on July 4th and Fri, as thicknesses climb to nearly 20 m above normal. With mid level warm/stable air beneath the strong ridge aloft and limited deep moisture flux into the area, rain chances will remain low Wed, then will have a trend toward climo pops for Thu/Fri, just 25-35% chance at most with those higher values focused on the extreme NW where mountain convection could drift late each day. -GIH && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM Friday... VFR conditions currently across the region with some mid and high clouds moving over the region. Later this afternoon some isolated showers or storms could develop around KFAY reducing visbys/ceilings at times with stronger storms. Up slope flow in the NW Piedmont could also generate some storms but not until later this evening. There is a good chance of low stratus and/or fog at all sites early morning. MVFR or even IFR conditions are possible by 06z at KINT, KGSO, and KRWI. As the low stratus develops and spreads south, KRDU and KFAY could see MVFR or IFR conditions by 08/09z. By 15/16z Saturday morning all sites are expected to return to MVFR. Outlook: Sub VFR conditions will be possible area wide Sun morning with IFR stratus, followed by a good chance of mainly afternoon- evening showers/storms Sunday. VFR conditions are expected early to mid week next week. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: June 30: KFAY: 102/2012 July 4: KGSO: 98/1970 KRDU: 101/2012 KFAY: 98/2019 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 28: KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 78/1914 June 29: KGSO: 74/2010 KRDU: 78/1914 KFAY: 76/1969 June 30: KGSO: 74/1936 KRDU: 80/1936 KFAY: 79/1936 July 1: KRDU: 75/2012 KFAY: 76/1990 July 4: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 79/1902 KFAY: 78/1913 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CA NEAR TERM...CA SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...CA CLIMATE...RAH