196
FXUS62 KRAH 232343
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
743 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A weak cold front and surface trough will settle over our region
tonight and Friday. The surface trough will linger over the weekend
keeping unsettled and warm conditions over central NC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 233 PM Thursday...

Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Satellite and radar data indicate several MCV`s that may affect
portions of the region late this afternoon and tonight. An initial
MCV was producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over portions
of NW North Carolina. Another was approaching the Tennessee Valley
and southern Appalachians. The CAMS continue to back off a bit on
convection in central NC this afternoon, holding off until late day
and tonight. Even those chances appear to be a bit less than in
previous model models. We are not totally biting off on this
scenario due to the forecast CAPE values of 1500 to 2000 j/kg, but
we will continue to delay timing slightly and lower initial POP. It
appears the best chance of thunderstorms will be in the NW
associated with the initial wave in the afternoon. This will be
followed by the addition waves and potential convection later in the
afternoon and tonight. Highs in the mid to upper 80s NW and upper
80s to lower 90s elsewhere. Lows tonight generally 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...

Confidence for Friday continues to be low with inconsistency for
timing and coverage. An upper level shortwave is expected to move
across the region bringing plenty of moisture through out the
atmosphere with PW values around 1.60 inches, which is slightly
above the daily average. Marginal to moderate CAPE across much of
the region especially in the southern half of the CWA mixed with
temps in the mid/upper 80s and dew points in the upper 60s to low
70s could result in a few isolated to scattered storms developing
across the region in the afternoon and early evening. It is not
expected to be a complete wash out across the region but some storms
could become strong and slow moving. For now, keeping chance pops
this afternoon and continuing overnight for showers and isolated
storms, but again, confidence of this is low. Overall, some breaks
in the clouds during the first half of the day, increased cloud
coverage and chance of storms second half of the day and continuing
into overnight. High will range from mid 80s in the north to upper
80s in the south. Lows will generally be in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of  215 PM Thursday...

A wet pattern continues through much of the long term as daily
chances for showers and storms are expected Saturday through
Wednesday. Best chance for showers and storms will be Saturday as a
trough slowly moves across the region. SPC has the entire FA in a
Marginal threat (level 1/5) for severe storms to develop.  As the
tough moves east, most of Sunday is expected to be dry as the
surface frontal boundary resides to the north over the OH valley. A
few showers could begin to develop in the late afternoon Sunday
(especially in the NW Piedmont) ahead of the frontal boundary moving
across the MS valley. By Monday, expect an upward trend in PoPs
through at least Tuesday as the front is expected to move across the
state. Timing difference between the long range models vary from
early Tuesday to late Tuesday. The timing is expected to affect
strength and coverage of showers and storms as well as temperatures.
As the front moves offshore, Wednesday and Thursday is expect to be
dry as high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic region.

Temperatures in the long term start off above average with highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s. As the front sweeps through the region
temperatures will flip and become a few degrees below average with
highs in the low to mid 80s mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 742 PM Thursday...

24 hour TAF period: Forecast is tricky and somewhat low confidence
over the next 24 hours. The two primary concerns are: 1. the
possibility for continued convection and 2. the potential fog/low
stratus development where rain has occurred today. Some guidance has
multiple rounds of convection moving through central NC tonight into
the day Fri, however there is uncertainty whether that will persist
with loss of heating and some stabilization from convection earlier
this aft/eve. Outflow from the storms has met up with a lingering
surface boundary roughly W-E across the area, south of KRDU and
KRWI. Highest confidence of showers/storms tonight along and south
of that boundary. As for fog/low stratus tonight, there is a good
signal in the guidance for development where convection has
occurred, so that would be every site aside from KFAY as of 00Z.
However, showers/storms are expected to move through KFAY in the
coming hours, so there is a chance there as well. Have tried to add
all that to the TAF, however timing and extent may be a little off.

A return to VFR conditions is expected through the morn/aft from
west to east, but again that depends on development of sub-VFR
conditions in the first place. Otherwise, winds should generally be
calm to light and variable, with stronger winds/gusts with storms
where they occur.

Looking ahead: Primarily diurnally driven showers/storms will be
possible at all terminals through Tue, with the best chances Fri,
Sat, and Mon.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KC