266
FXUS62 KRAH 140718
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
220 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 220 AM Saturday...

* No significant changes to the weekend storm system, with continued
  high confidence in light to moderate rain areawide.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 220 AM Saturday...

1) Confidence remains high in widespread and mostly beneficial
rainfall this weekend, mainly Sun into early Mon morning, although
isolated street flooding is still possible.

2) Temperatures climbing above normal Tuesday through Friday with
mostly dry weather this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 220 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Confidence remains high in widespread and mostly
beneficial rainfall this weekend, mainly Sun into early Mon morning,
although isolated street flooding is still possible.

Synoptic overview: Models and ensemble systems continue to agree
fairly well on the speed and amplitude of the mid level low and
shortwave trough now tracking E over the Srn AZ border, taking it E
across TX through this evening, into the Mid South and Deep South
through Sun evening, and off the Southeast coast Mon. At the
surface, high pressure analyzed over the Mid Atlantic and E
Carolinas will shift SE off the Carolina coast tonight, setting the
stage for in situ cold-air damming development Sun morning as the
incoming lift and moisture flux generate precip and a cool stable
pool over the Piedmont. Models agree on this surface pattern
evolution, featuring a strong primary surface low moving from AR
east to AL/GS Sat night to Sun night, then as the CAD/wedge front
edges NW into SE sections of central NC, the secondary low will form
and deepen along the CAD/wedge front over the eastern Carolinas.

Rainfall: Agreement is quite good among the deterministic models and
ensemble members in a solid area of rain spreading in from the W,
with forcing for ascent fueled in part by mid level height falls,
vigorous upper divergence, and strong/deep moist upglide at 285K-
310K. Moisture should be deep and plentiful, with PW still likely to
peak at 225-250% of normal as a plume of high integrated vapor
transport spreads from the Gulf NE into NC. The timing of the rain
still looks on track, with patchy light rain moving into the western
forecast area very late tonight, followed by precip picking up and
becoming steady areawide through much of Sun, peaking in the
afternoon and evening before a W-to-E departure late Sun night into
early Mon, with the early Mon rain chances mainly confined to our E
half. Storm total rainfall is still expected to be generally 1-2
inches, with probabilities of storm total amounts over 1" holding at
50%-65% over much of the Piedmont, where the peak moist upglide
should occur as the nose of a projected 35-45 kt SSW low level jet
focuses along the sloping wedge front and enhances lift. In
addition, as dewpoints in the warm sector (SE of the wedge front)
are poised to rise into the 50s, we may see pockets of weak surface-
based convection that could boost rainfall rates locally, mainly
across the SE CWA. Given our current severe to extreme drought
conditions and paucity of rainfall across the area lately, this rain
will be largely welcome and beneficial. But brief heavier rain rates
over more urban or poor drainage areas could still lead to isolated
areas of street flooding.

Where this forecast could deviate: If the mid level low remains very
strong and tracks well to our S with a preceding band of convection
tracking across the Deep South into S GA and FL and off the GA/FL
coast, this has the potential to rob NC of the greatest moisture
transport and could result in a suppression of the higher rain
totals to our S and a reduction in expected rainfall amounts in our
area. While this probability is low, we`ve seen this scenario
before, so it will be worth watching for.

Temps: With confidence increasing that we`ll be in an in situ CAD
event, Sun highs remain a bit lower than most guidance in the NW CWA
and slightly higher in the SE CWA. Expect a range from the upper 40s
in the NW and near the VA border, to the low 60s SE, with a tight
gradient somewhere in between. Further adjustments and refinements
to Sun max temps are likely as we get closer to the event. -GIH


KEY MESSAGE 2: Temperatures climbing above normal Tuesday through
Friday with mostly dry weather this week.

Weak northwesterly flow aloft will prevail across the area early in
the week in the wake of Sunday`s departing storm system. However it
will gradually become more zonal Tuesday and especially by
Wednesday. At the surface, this will translate into high pressure
settling over NC, then shifting offshore Wednesday through Friday.
Return southerly flow each day will promote a noteworthy warmup with
highs easily climbing into the 60s and 70s each afternoon from
Tuesday through Friday. Some spots in the Sandhills/southern Coastal
Plain could make a run at the mid/upper 70s by the end of the week.

Within the broad zonal flow aloft, a series of fast moving shortwave
troughs are forecast to sweep from the Great Lakes into the Mid
Atlantic with one wave on Wednesday and another Friday/Saturday. The
majority of the 100 member grand ensemble keep these waves and any
associated precip well north of NC although a few solutions suggest
a stray shower may be possible late in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Saturday...

Confidence remains high that central NC terminals will have VFR
conditions through the next 24 hours. Skies will be fair for
much of today with only a few high clouds, although a deck of
bkn to ovc clouds based at 15-18 thsd ft AGL will spread in
from the W starting late afternoon, with all sites likely to
see ovc VFR clouds by the end of the TAF valid period. No vsby
restrictions. Sfc winds will be nearly calm through daybreak,
then from the SW at 6-10 kts during the day, and from the S or
SSW after nightfall under 5 kts.

Outlook beyond 06z Sun: Ovc VFR clouds will hold through
sunrise, with lowering cloud bases. A W to E trend to sub-VFR
conditions is likely Sun morning, with sub-VFR conditions
persisting with periods of rain through Sun night. Rain may last
into mid morning Mon at RWI/FAY. VFR conditions should return
Mon morning, although gusty NE winds will hold through the rest
of Mon areawide. VFR conditions should prevail from late Mon
through Wed. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield/Leins
AVIATION...Hartfield