000
FXUS62 KRAH 210555
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
155 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A couple of mid and upper-level disturbances will approach and
interact with a frontal zone that will settle off the coast of the
Carolinas through this evening. High pressure will otherwise
build across the Middle-Atlantic states through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 945 PM Saturday...

A lingering cold frontal segment evident in 0130Z surface
observational data from near MRH to CTZ and FAY may continue to
focus isolated showers/storms through 04Z, after which time the
front should settle south and completely out of the srn NC Coastal
Plain and far srn Sandhills.

Meanwhile, a couple of shortwave perturbations now over NE and the
TX panhandle, respectively, will come into phase as they pivot
across the mid MS Valley through 12Z. Associated ascent will cause a
separate area of light, stratiform rain to overspread cntl NC
generally between 08-12Z, with a combination of CAA and evaporative
cooling that will result in low temperatures generally in the upr
40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

A southern stream low pressure system that is expected to move out
of the southern Gulf states late Saturday night then up and along
the SE coast through Sunday night. Rain chances are expected to
begin early Sunday morning across the  southern and western Piedmont
regions, and progress northeast across the region during the day.
Pops during the afternoon across mainly the southern two thirds of
the CWA will range from 75-85% as the center of the low is just off
the NC coast. As it ejects to the NE late afternoon and evening,
PoPs will diminish from NW to SE late evening and into the overnight
hours. QPF amounts will range from less than quarter inch in the NW
to around 0.75” across the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plains.
Sunday is expected to be just rain, with all the instability
offshore and closer to the center of the low, no thunder is put in
the forecast.

Dew points will be starting off low, mainly in the 40s, across the
region. Paired with morning temperatures in the low 50s along the
northern Piedmont this will result in a very chilly rainy day where
the rain will help keep temperatures around 50 degrees (in the
north).  Elsewhere, temperatures are a little uncertain as they will
depend majorly on the timing of the rain and how early it will
arrive. If morning heating could sneak in before the rain comes, we
expect a major temperature spread across the region. For now have
timed out temperatures to timing of the incoming of rain, which
gives the southeastern portions of the CWA a few hours of
availability to heat early morning thus, highs for Sunday will be
non-diurnal and expected to occur in the morning. As the precip
moves into the region the cooling process will begin and temps are
expected to fall through the day (especially in the SE where the
morning temperature starts in the upper 50s but afternoon
temperatures will be in the low 50s).

Precipitation will completely move out of the area just after
midnight with high pressure quickly building in from the west. Skies
will be mostly clear by morning with morning lows Monday in the low
40s north, to upper 40s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 210 PM Saturday...

Although some showers could persist along the immediate North
Carolina coastline Monday morning, it appears that all of the rain
should have moved east of the forecast area. Skies will be clearing
through the day, but a persistent northerly wind will keep
temperatures below normal, although warmer than Sunday - widespread
mid 60s. The warming trend will continue through the rest of the
forecast, with highs in the 70s (and lower 80s across the south on
Saturday).

In the previous forecast package, the primary concern for the second
half of the week was whether a cold front was going to stall in the
vicinity of the Carolinas and allow for diurnal showers or whether
it would push south and allow for a dry forecast. The most recent
model guidance seems to suggest that there is minimal potential for
showers on Wednesday (with nearly all precipitation remaining to the
north), but that the cold front should push through the region. The
better chance of showers in the extended forecast should be Saturday
near the warm front of a second system moving into the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 AM Sunday...

VFR ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR then IFR with light
rain today. VSBYS will mostly lower from VFR to MVFR with the
light rain through the day.

Flight conditions will be lowest and rain relatively heaviest at
RDU/FAY/RWI. A period of NE gustiness may also result this
morning to 25kt, especially at RWI and RDU, as an area of surface
low pressure develops/ strengthens along the aforementioned,
offshore front.

Outlook: Light rain and flight restrictions will end from southwest
to northeast Sunday evening. High pressure through early next week,
then the passage of a moisture-starved cold front Wednesday
afternoon-evening, will favor VFR conditions through most of the
next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Badgett/MWS