Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
133 FXUS62 KRAH 260700 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 300 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot southwesterly flow will result today between high pressure over the Atlantic and a cold front that will approach from the northwest and reach the western Carolinas by Thursday morning. The front will then move slowly east across the central and eastern Carolinas later Thursday through Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 PM Tuesday... Hot with near Heat Advisory criteria... Hot conditions look to be close to heat advisory criteria for portions of the eastern Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain Wednesday afternoon and early evening. The heat index numbers currently indicate that the urban areas around Raleigh and Fayetteville should top out in the 100-104 range, just short of criteria. Surrounding areas are a few degrees lower in the 98-101 range for heat indices. Maximum temperatures should top out between 96-100, except 93-96 in the NW-N Piedmont. We will hold off on a heat advisory for now, but we may need one for Wednesday in later forecasts, especially for the urban areas around the Triangle and Fayetteville. Otherwise, mostly sunny and hot conditions under strong ridging will continue. There may be an isolated thunderstorm SE Coastal Plain associated with the seabreeze late day. Another mid level trough will approach late Wednesday night. There is a slight chance of showers/thunderstorm NW-N overnight, but chances appear minimal at this time as models suggest plenty of CINH overnight. Lows will be mostly in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... A cold front should extend from northeast to southwest across the forecast area Thursday morning, and it will continue to slide southeast through the day. It still appears that the bulk of the showers and thunderstorms will occur behind the front, with greatest coverage during the mid afternoon decreasing through the late afternoon into the evening. Vertical wind shear still remains very low, meaning it should be hard for an organized cluster of storms to develop. However, instability values between 1000-2000 J/kg should be enough to allow isolated strong to severe thunderstorms to develop, with the primary hazard coming from damaging wind gusts. The chance of thunderstorms should linger everywhere into the evening, then remain confined east of I-95 after midnight. While dewpoints may be slightly increased from today, high temperatures should come down between 3-7 degrees. This should result in a day with heat index values in the 90s north of US-64 and in the low triple digits south of US-64. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... Friday: It still appears that morning precipitation should remain confined to southeastern counties, but as the previous day`s front retreats back to the north, a chance of thunderstorms should return to most locations in the afternoon. An upper level shortwave moving through Friday night will allow the chance of showers/storms to continue overnight, particularly across western counties. Highs should range from the upper 80s to the mid 90s, with heat index values over 100 south of Raleigh. Weekend: Ensembles are a bit faster than deterministic models bringing precipitation to the east in advance of the next front. Have increased pops to chance to most locations Saturday afternoon, although precipitation will retreat west overnight. However, deterministic and ensemble models continue to have good agreement with the front moving through Sunday/Sunday night, and have continued with likely pops during the afternoon/evening time period. These two days will likely be the warmest days in the extended forecast, with widespread mid to upper 90s for highs. Heat index values will probably reach heat advisory criteria of 105 degrees in many locations, although there is more uncertainty in reaching these values with the chance of rain in the forecast. Monday/Tuesday: The front will be slow to move through, and will maintain chance pops nearly everywhere Monday afternoon and across southern counties Tuesday afternoon. Both temperatures and humidity should definitely be lower behind the front, with air temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to the low 90s and heat index values close to the air temperatures as a result of the lower humidity. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 AM Wednesday... An area of stratus based between 1000-1500 ft AGL now blossoming over nrn SC/srn NC will likely continue to expand nwd, amid light sly flow in that layer, and overspread FAY; RDU; and RWI through 11Z, then lift and disperse to VFR by 13-14Z. It may also locally lower to IFR as the sub-cloud layer further cools and moistens through sunrise. While an isolated storm cannot be ruled out mainly around FAY with daytime heating and lift from the sea breeze, there will be a slightly better chance of a few showers and isolated storms over the Piedmont tonight, as a mid-level trough and outflow boundary/front approach from the northwest - likely to be highlighted with a PROB30 group with 12Z TAF issuance. Additionally, the development of an Appalachian-lee, nocturnal low- level jet across and offshore the Middle tonight may result in marginal low-level wind shear mainly from nrn NC/srn VA to the Middle Atlantic coast. Outlook: IFR-MVFR stratus will again be possible especially at FAY and RWI in the early morning from Thu through the weekend. The chance of mainly afternoon-evening showers/storms will be highest, especially at FAY and RWI on Thu, and again area-wide Sun-Sun night. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: June 26: KRDU: 102/1952 KFAY: 101/1951 June 27: KFAY: 102/1998 June 30: KFAY: 102/2012 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 26: KGSO: 74/2010 KRDU: 76/1902 KFAY: 76/1997 June 27: KGSO: 76/1969 KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 77/1998 June 28: KGSO: 76/1969 KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 78/1914 June 29: KGSO: 74/2010 KRDU: 78/1914 KFAY: 76/1969 June 30: KGSO: 74/1936 KRDU: 80/1936 KFAY: 79/1936 July 1: KGSO: 77/1970 KRDU: 75/2012 KFAY: 76/1990 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Green LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...MWS CLIMATE...RAH