055
FXUS65 KREV 012042
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
142 PM PDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* High pressure will bring a significant warmup this week with a
  prolonged heatwave setting up over the 4th of July weekend.

* Heat risk levels will rise to moderate Wednesday through Friday,
  increasing to major across western NV over the weekend. A few
  records will be broken.

* It will remain very dry with low afternoon humidity and poor
  overnight recovery.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* CHANGES: Excessive Heat Watch issued Saturday to Tuesday
  morning. Blended guidance was significantly warmer this
  morning.

* Strong high pressure will build across CA-NV this week with
  temperatures rising to 10-15 degrees above average by the
  weekend and overnight lows only cooling briefly early each day.
  While we are heading into our climatologically hottest time of
  the summer, blended guidance is impressive as it pushes strongly
  against climatology, as much as 15 degrees above normal over the
  extended holiday weekend. This pushes the HeatRisk into the
  major impact category across all of western NV Sat-Mon, while
  July 4th and Friday will be miserable and not far behind as the
  HeatRisk moves into the Moderate category. It is not only going
  to be unusually hot with record highs expected, but this is
  going to be an extended period of heat. Many of the long term
  ensemble members keep us in a heat wave until the middle of next
  week with a better than 50/50 chance of staying over 100
  degrees. Even Sierra communities will reach or exceed 90 degrees
  and advisory headlines may be warranted at some point.

* Conditions will remain very dry with little chance for
  convection. Then again, it would not take much to get a storm or
  two by late in the weekend or early next week after several
  days of intense heat. While the forecast contains no mention of
  storms, keep it in the back of your mind that there is a 5-15%
  chance for a few high-based buildups/showers/storms over the
  weekend and early next week, especially in the typical
  convergence zones east of Lassen Peak and along the eastern
  Sierra south of Lake Tahoe.

* A period of locally breezy north winds with gusts generally
  20-25 mph is expected through this evening across western NV and
  lower elevations of northeast CA. Winds turn east tonight with
  breezy ridge winds into early Tue AM and maybe a bit of east
  wind on Lake Tahoe as a front swings through the area.
  Otherwise, just some typical late day winds through the weekend.

Hohmann

&&

.AVIATION...

* No big changes. VFR conditions with main concern being heat as
  temperatures warm to well above average through the July 4th
  holiday weekend. No significant wind with chances for storms
  very low (less than 10%).

* Afternoon highs will approach 100 degrees for lower elevation
  terminals Wed-Fri. Highs warm further over the weekend with 90+
  degrees at Sierra terminals and 105+ degrees across lower
  elevation airports, further increasing potential density
  altitude impacts.

Hohmann

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

* Locally breezy north winds (gusts 25-30 mph) and low humidity
  (10-15%) may result in a short period of near critical fire
  weather through mid evening, mainly across northwest NV where
  there were a few lightning strikes late Sunday.

* Dry and hot weather will persist the rest of the week and into
  next weekend with poor overnight recovery and temperatures
  climbing to near record levels by the weekend. While no
  significant winds are forecast, the very dry conditions and deep
  mixing will be capable of promoting fire growth.

Hohmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Tuesday
     morning NVZ001-003>005.
CA...None.
&&

$$