Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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991 FXUS65 KRIW 220826 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 226 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The overall weather pattern will begin to trend towards a warmer and drier one starting today. - Hot and dry weather returns for the end of the weekend and through much of the upcoming week. Highs may near 95-100 degrees in parts of the CWA by Sunday. - The lack of rainfall and hot/dry weather may create concerning fire weather conditions through the end of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Some much needed rain fell across parts of central and southern Wyoming yesterday. Unfortunately, chances for any additional precipitation in the upcoming week look extremely slim. Dry and hot weather look to return and prevail across the Cowboy state for much of the upcoming week. The weekend starts pleasant with seasonable temperatures and mostly clear skies, as a potent area of high pressure builds back into the region. Sunday will be hot and breezy, as the pressure gradient begins to tighten due to a shortwave moving to the north of the region. Warm advection will aid in producing some of the warmest temperatures of the year so far. Models are showing parts of Natrona and Johnson Counties along with the Wind River Basin having a (40- 70%) chance of seeing 95 or higher temperatures. Highs in parts of the Bighorn Basin on Sunday have a (20-50%) chance of nearing or exceeding the century mark. One thing that may limit the extent of the warming is the possibility of afternoon virga showers developing. Some CAM`s have recently shown showers developing Sunday afternoon but with it being so dry and hot throughout the atmosphere precipitation will struggle to reach the surface. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will likely develop Sunday and continue through much of the upcoming week. Winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon Sunday with gusts of 15 to 25 mph. The combination of these breezy winds, above normal temperatures, and low RH values will create concerns regarding fire development. The warm, dry, and breezy weather continues into Monday. Temperatures will again reach the mid to upper 90s in areas east of the Divide and in the mid to upper 80s west of the Divide. Winds increase on Monday with gusts of 25 to 35 mph at times across much of the CWA. Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop by Monday due to these stronger gusts. The remainder of the week will see hot and dry weather persist across the CWA. Elevated to near fire weather conditions are expected to prevail through the week with winds being the only limiting factor. This hot and dry weather is slightly concerning, as looking at climate data, many places are currently seeing below normal precipitation amounts for the month and year. The amount some places are below normal will likely be too much to overcome in the remaining days of June. If this hot and dry weather continues through the remainder of the month and no relief in terms of precipitation arrives, you can expect the green to quickly turn brown by the time we reach July. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1014 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Skies will continue to clear, moving toward the northeast, to start the TAF period, leaving mostly SKC through much of the forecast. FEW CU will likely again develop for most areas Saturday afternoon, but no conditions less than VFR are expected. South to southwest winds are expected to keep any fog/low ceilings from developing at KCPR Saturday morning. Conditions will remain dry through the next 24 hours, with mostly light winds. Gusts up to 20 kt will be possible at a few terminals during the afternoon, but subside after 00Z. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski AVIATION...LaVoie