942
FXUS61 KRLX 291052
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
652 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and increasingly humid today with storm potential. Severe
storms and heavy rain are possible today and Sunday. A cold front
crosses Sunday. Dry the new work week, becoming hot.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

Key Point:
* Severe storms and heavy downpours possible this afternoon
  and evening.

A cold front approaches from the west late tonight into early
Sunday morning. Meanwhile, low level southwest flow will pump
moisture and warm air to the area with PWATs exceeding 2.0
inches, H850 theta-e values exceeding 340K and dewpoints in the
mid 70s. These moisture ingredients will destabilize the
atmosphere with the heat, providing CAPE exceeding 2500 J/Kg.
Guidance shows deep layer shear about 25-30 knots across the
northern half of the CWA this afternoon and evening. In
addition, guidance suggests an upper level short wave should
arrive around 8 PM to the Mid Ohio valley. This wave will provide
extra forcing to sustain strong to severe thunderstorms, more
numerous across the northern half of the area where deep layered
shear is higher. The best potential for isolated to scattered
severe storms is expected to be in the late afternoon through
the evening. While damaging winds will be the primary concern,
there is also a non-zero risk for tornadoes or hail.

Local soundings show a robust, moist and tall CAPE feature with
equilibrium levels about 45 kft. This will allow for strong to
severe updrafts conducive to heavy downpours and associated
localized flooding over poor drainage areas or locations
impacted by multiple storms.

Afternoon temperatures will rise into the lower 90s across the
lowlands, ranging into the mid 70s higher elevations. A muggy night
is anticipated with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Lows will range
from the low to mid 70s lowlands, into the mid 60s higher
elevations Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Saturday...

A cold front associated with a low moving across the Great
Lakes will be exiting the area toward the east to start this
period off on Sunday morning. Some shower and storm activity
will be possible during the day time on Sunday with some strong
to severe storms possible before the front kicks out.

Looking at soundings there is plenty of CAPE under partly
cloudy skies with no CIN meaning prolonged updrafts with enough
upper level wind support and modest wind shear of 30KT+ could
promote some long duration storms. DCAPE is solid along with
high PWATs and mid to upper level moisture which will promote
heavy downpours that could lead to localized water issues,
especially in low lying or flood prone areas.

The main threats seem to be damaging wind and heavy downpours.
WPC has us in a marginal threat for excessive rainfall and SPC
has us in a marginal threat for severe storms. This will mainly
be for the afternoon until the front exits toward the mountains
by the evening.

Temperatures will go from slightly above seasonable on Sunday
to a more less than seasonable and cooler day on Monday with
colder air filtering behind the front along with broad high
pressure building in and supported by upper level ridging.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 AM Saturday...

High pressure dominates into the long term period shielding the
area from any unsettle weather well into the new work week.
This will allow for mainly clear skies and a warming trend
through midweek.

By Wednesday afternoon, chances for shower and storms returns.
Models have a good handle on a cold front passing through on
Thursday, however they diverge thereafter. Ideally diurnal
thunderstorms will prevail for the rest of the week and into the
weekend. Southerly flow dominates the rest of this period
influencing the region with plenty of warm air advection and a
strong moisture flux from the south.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 630 AM Saturday...

Widespread VFR conditions to continue through the early afternoon
hours. Diurnal heating and ample moisture will destabilize the
atmosphere to produce strong to severe convection across the area.
Thunderstorms will be more numerous across the northern half of the
area affecting with good confidence PKB and CKB after 18Z.
Additional convection will be possible at other sites, but will code
VCTS for now as difficult to predict the exact tracks of storms.

In addition, an upper level disturbance will bring forcing to
sustain strong to severe updrafts/downdrafts this afternoon and
evening. Brief periods of IFR conditions under strong gusty winds
can be expected under or nearby thunderstorms with more confidence
across the northern sites. Using Hi-res CAMS models, timed and coded
thunderstorms with PROB30 during the late afternoon and evening
hours at PKB and CKB.

SPC maintains a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon across northern and central portions of the area, with a
marginal risk farther south. The main severe threat with
thunderstorms will be damaging wind gusts. The severe threat will
last on into the evening hours.

Light south to southwest flow will prevail today, becoming light and
variable tonight. Winds aloft will become light from the south
southeast through tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Amendments may be needed in showers and
especially stronger thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SAT 06/29/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...ARJ