986
FXUS61 KRLX 140330
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1130 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure keeps conditions warm and dry tonight. Chance for showers
and thunderstorms on Friday with a cold front. An extended stretch
of hot weather will begin late this weekend through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1110 PM Thursday...

Tweaked overnight temperatures a degree or two lower across most
of the CWA. Otherwise, patchy river valley fog is expected to
develop overnight across the central/southern portion of the
CWA. Additionally, a few showers across portions of SE OH
cannot entirely be ruled out later tonight from weakening
upstream convection, but any activity would be quite isolated
and light. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 510 PM Thursday...

Made minor tweaks to cloud cover throughout the evening, but
otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track. Diurnal Cu
field is currently most robust along the spine of the northern
mountains with anabatic convergence, but given significant dry
air in the low-levels, the chance of squeezing out an isolated
light shower is quite low. Given such, have removed the mention
of isolated showers/storms from all of the higher terrain for
the rest of the evening.

As of 130 PM Thursday...

Surface high pressure slides east, keeping warm and dry weather
conditions tonight. Wind aloft increases from the southwest, pumping
moist and warm air into the area with dewpoints increasing into the
mid 60s ahead of a cold front. This cold front will encounter an
environment with CAPE about 1800 J/Kg, deep layered shear (about 25
knots southern two thirds of the area), higher across the northern
sections (45-50 knots), and SRH about 100 m2/s2. PWATs should reach
1.5 to 1.7 inches. Equilibrium levels about 35kft, dry mid level
air, and skinny CAPE sounding signatures suggest strongest storms
could produce moderate to heavy downpours and strong to damaging
winds Friday afternoon and evening. SPC has outlooked the northern
areas under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging
winds being the main threat.

Muggy tonight, with lows in the mid 60s lowlands, ranging into
the upper 50s higher elevations. Patchy fog possible over most
protected river valleys during the predawn hours. Despite of
abundant clouds and cooling showers, highs on Friday are
expected to reach the upper 80s across the lowlands, ranging
into the lower 70s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1209 PM Thursday...

In a post-frontal airmass Saturday, summerlike warmth will coincide
with a comfortable feel. Dew points will be in the 40s to 50s
Saturday with air temperatures in the lower to middle 80s. This
will give us a brief reprieve from the humidity. As an upper-
level ridge expands over the eastern 1/3 of the country Sunday,
temperatures will be on the rise and dew points will return to
the 60s for most. Expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
Sunday with largely dry conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1209 PM Thursday...

The upper-level ridge will continue to strengthen over the East
heading into the new work week, which means the summerlike warmth
and humidity will continue through most of next week. There is also
the potential for a heat wave. Something to keep in mind is that CRW
has not officially hit 90 degrees yet, and while there is a high
likelihood that could occur next week, there still remains some
uncertainty. Models are undecided in the placement of the upper-
level ridge axis; the GFS predicts the ridge axis will be a little
farther east than the ECMWF. The strength and duration of the heat
will highly depend on the location of the ridge axis; if it ends up
being farther east like the GFS is showing, we could have more
clouds with increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. This
would also lead to slightly lower temperatures over our region.

While we continue to wait for models to come into better
agreement, it is still important to prepare for the heat. There
is a high potential for most of next week to be excessively hot,
especially Monday through Thursday. It may be a good idea to
stock up on water and other hydration fluids before the heat
arrives, and make sure to put other heat safety tips into
practice by taking frequent breaks in the air conditioning and
checking on sensitive groups.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 810 PM Thursday...

Dry conditions persist area-wide tonight, with patchy river
valley fog providing the only aviation concern. Brief
MVFR/IFR/LIFR VSBY restrictions are possible late tonight at
CRW/EKN/PKB with fog. Confidence in restrictions at EKN is
highest, while confidence in restrictions at CRW/PKB is quite
low, with just BCFG/VCFG coded into the aforementioned TAFs for
the time being. Any fog that does develop lifts/dissipates by
~12Z on Friday.

The chance for ISOL/SCT showers and thunderstorms returns
Friday afternoon/evening as a cold front crosses through the
region. Brief MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions are possible within
thunderstorms, along with strong wind gusts. Given some
location/timing uncertainty, VCTS has been coded into northern
terminal TAFs later in the day, while left out of southern
terminal TAFs given less confidence in arrival before 00Z
Saturday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist during the day
on Friday.

Light and variable or calm surface flow is expected tonight.
Light WSW surface flow develops on Friday, veering to NW late in
the day following the passage of the front. Strong wind gusts
could occur with some thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog tonight and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon/evening, high otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Patchy river valley fog may result in brief
restrictions late tonight at CRW/EKN/PKB. Brief MVFR/IFR VSBY
restrictions are possible Friday afternoon/evening within any
thunderstorms.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 06/14/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions are possible with valley fog on Saturday and
Sunday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/GW/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GW