084
FXUS61 KRLX 301728
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
128 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the area today. Cooler and dry to start
the work week, then temperatures warm for Tuesday. Next chance
for rain arrives Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 PM Sunday...

This afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and storms remain
possible ahead of and along a cold front that is currently
making its way across West Virginia. Meanwhile, to the west of
the Ohio River, post-frontal northwest flow is beginning to
transport drier air into the area.

The front will exit to the east this evening while high pressure
builds in from the north, resulting in tranquil weather and
clearing skies for tonight. Overnight temperatures will be much
cooler, with lows expected to range from low to mid 50s in the
lowlands and mid 40s to low 50s along the mountains.

High pressure remains in control at the surface on Monday, with dry
air and unseasonably mild temperatures making for a sunny and rather
pleasant day. High temperatures are expected to remain in the
mid to upper 70s in the lowlands and mid 60s to 70s for the
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Sunday...

To start this period off, a broad surface high will be draped
across the region, therefore promoting settled weather. Upper
level ridging builds in through the rest of Monday reinforcing
fair weather. Due to northerly flow and passage of the cold
front from the previous day cold air advection will keep
temperatures down to below seasonable across the entire CWA. It
will actually then give us a night of cool and quiet weather
for a change.

Tuesday is kind of a different story although high pressure
will remain at all levels, but the surface high will eventually
drive east away from the area. A warming trend will then take
place with temperatures expected to be slightly above
seasonable by Tuesday afternoon. However, with southerly flow
and dewpoints on the rise nighttime temperatures will remain
elevated for this time of year. This trend will go into
Wednesday with increasing warm air advection and higher
dewpoints topping daytime highs forecast to be in the low to mid
90`s across most of the area. With fleeting high pressure the
next chance of rain will be Wednesday afternoon into the
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 250 AM Sunday...

With chances of rain starting off across the entire area on
Thursday a cold frontal passage will try and make its way
through by late Thursday although models have it kind of
stalling a bit to where by Friday we may just see the passage
take place. This will keep high chances of rain on the table
going into the weekend when models have another cold frontal
passage expected on Saturday. This all equated to keeping
chances of rain and thunderstorms for most of the latter part of
this period with mainly diurnal thunderstorms taking priority
over the rest of the time frame although we cannot rule out
nocturnal storm activity.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 125 PM Sunday...

Sub-VFR ceilings and isolated to scattered showers and storms
remain possible ahead of a cold front this afternoon, while
cloud cover continues to scatter out behind the front. VFR is
expected to return to all sites by the end of the day. While
cool and clear conditions favor fog development, enough flow
could persist through the night to keep fog from forming in all
but the deeper, more sheltered valleys. Some restrictions could
also be possible in low stratus along the mountains. VFR
conditions are then expected for Monday courtesy of high
pressure.

Periodic 15-20kt gusts and a transition to a northwest wind
direction will occur following the frontal passage today. Light,
flow is expected to be out of the north overnight and then takes on
a north to northeast direction for Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Periodic restrictions could occur in any
storms this afternoon. Fog could be more widespread than
expected if winds decouple tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JLB