Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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018 FXUS61 KRLX 240209 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1009 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms before exiting east of the Appalachians late tonight. More seasonable air can be expected behind the front on Monday. Heating up again midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1003 PM Sunday... Cold front, currently transversing the area, will continue to spread isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms as it moves east overnight. Low level flow will be enough to prevent widespread fog, but expecting low stratus to develop overnight into Monday morning. Rest of forecast remains on track. As of 215 PM Sunday... After an initial band of showers fell apart as it entered the area this morning, a new band of showers fired up just west of, and slicing into northwest portions of, the forecast area early this afternoon, ahead of a cold front and beneath a broad, loosely defined mid level short wave trough. While there is limited opportunity for surface heating due to cloud cover, temperatures were off to a high start this morning, and were already at or near convective temperatures, in the mid to upper 80s, across much of the middle Ohio valley. SPC analysis showed modest CAPE of under a KJ/kg over much of the forecast area, but as high as 1.5 KJ/kg along the western flank, and 2 KJ/kg just upstream, where the convection was starting to fire up. This and deep layer bulk shear to 30 kts or so should be just enough for strong to marginally severe thunderstorm wind gusts, especially in clusters or short line segments. SPC has maintained the slight risk of severe thunderstorms for the middle Ohio Valley, with a marginal risk elsewhere. While rainfall rates have not been high at all yet, PW values in the 1.75 to 2 inch range should lead to heavy downpours as storms intensify this afternoon. WPC continues the marginal risk for locally excessive rainfall for the area. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually decrease in intensity and coverage as they move east across the mountains tonight. Once the cold front crosses, low clouds may form, mainly in and near the mountains, but there should be enough gradient low level flow to keep fog formation limited, and the clouds will mix into an afternoon cumulus field atop the deepening mixing layer on Monday. After a warm evening ahead of the front, save for wet-bulb cooling, lows Monday morning will be perceptibly lower across northwest portions of the forecast area, and slightly lower southeast, compared with this notably warm morning. Monday brings relief from the heat with highs down around normal. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 PM Sunday... Tuesday looks to remain mainly dry across the area, although an isolated shower or storm cannot be completely ruled out from any passing disturbance, overall, we should be stable enough to prevent much of anything from developing. Temperatures on Tuesday will likely top out in the lower 90s once again for many lowland locations. By Wednesday, showers and storms will be on the increase once again, possibly in multiple rounds, with one round possible in the morning, and another later in the day as an upper trough and cold front start to move through the area. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, and will contain heavy downpours. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1148 AM Sunday... Frontal boundary and upper trough will move east of the area late Wednesday night or early Thursday, with high pressure building into the region behind it. This should usher in a brief period of cooler and drier weather for Thursday. By Friday into the weekend, heat returns, as southerly flow increases out ahead of the next system, which will move into the area over the weekend, with additional rounds of showers and storms. A bit early to say for sure, but heat headlines may be needed during this time period. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 801 PM Sunday... Radar shows scattered thunderstorms ahead and along the cold front entering the Mid OH valley at this time. Gusty southwest winds will shift northwest behind the front this evening. Convection will continue spreading east loosing intensity around sunset. Coded TSRA at HTS and CRW which are the most likely to be affected, and VCTS at the rest of sites through early tonight. MVFR stratocu may develop along the eastern mountains and western foothills overnight into early Monday morning. Gusty southwest winds will switch from from the northwest behind the front, and then become light overnight tonight, and then light northwest on Monday. Light to moderate southwest flow aloft this afternoon will become light to moderate northwest behind the front aloft tonight, and then light north to northwest on Monday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms could vary, and amendments may be needed for brief IFR conditions. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 06/24/24 UTC 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 EDT 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H H H M M M L M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... IFR possible in fog overnight Monday night into early Tuesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ