662
FXUS61 KRLX 260718
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
318 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue this week
in response to a stationary disturbance over the Ohio Valley and
a tropical system sailing up from the Gulf coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Thursday...

Cloudy skies with rain showers and periods of steady rain will
be the theme for today. Thunderstorm probability is very low,
therefore elected to leave mention of them out of the forecast.
Cannot rule an isolated one out, but for the most part this
period will endure stable stratiform rain. The rain could be
heavy at times, especially across southern WV and southwest VA.
Parts of these areas are under a flood watch still and we may
need to expand the watch further north when day shift
reevaluates. According to just the EURO we would likely expand
as the plume of higher QPF does not change path too much and
goes through Friday. Although other guidance seems to be on a
slightly drier solution which justifies the reason to hold off
for now.

The pressure gradient will start to tighten later on in the
evening in response to Hurricane Helene coming up from the
south. This feature will raise winds to near advisory criteria
along the peaks and ridges of southeastern WV and southwestern
VA. Depending on the track, southerly flow looks to be the best
solution which will create downsloping to enhance wind speeds
across those mountains. Forcast soundings indicate 50KT+ at
2000FT elevation so a watch or an advisory may be needed.
However, most guidance (other than the NAMDNG) is not
indicating or showing any signal for high wind, therefore
elected to pass this on to the next shift so they can evaluate
with newer guidance. The time frame we are looking at is Friday
at around 9Z to Saturday at 03Z.

It looks like most of the QPF will fall along the southern half
of our CWA and this is where the most rainfall has gathered in
the past several days to where some locations have seen several
inches of rainfall. Flooding will be the main threat today if
these areas are inundated with more heavy rainfall or exceed
certain rain rates which could lead to flooding issues from low
lying areas, flood prone areas or even smaller creeks coming
out of their banks.

With all the cloud coverage expected and rain cooled air,
temperatures were tweaked toward slightly lower than guidance
with much of the area not expected to surpass the 75 degree
mark, with slightly cooler temperatures in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 213 PM Wednesday...

Precipitation, and winds, will ramp back up again for Friday as the
remnants of Helene move onshore and northward towards the region,
eventually weakening and becoming absorbed into upper low across
Lower MS Valley Friday evening. Main track of the low still looking
to be just to our west. Ample moisture, with PW values progged to
rise to 2 inches or more across the area, will help to provide some
beneficial rain to the area, particularly across the mountains and
southern zones. In addition, strong gusty winds will develop, owing
to tight pressure gradient and strong winds aloft, particularly
along ridges. Heaviest QPF will be across the mountains and far
southern zones, with parts of WV lowlands looking to
potentially suffer from downslope effects/lighter QPF. Could
foresee wind and water headlines across far south with future
packages.

Precipitation will gradually decrease in coverage Friday evening
into the first part of Saturday as Helene becomes absorbed into
upper low across Lower MS Valley, and rotates northwest of the area
briefly. However, precipitation will increase in coverage again
later Saturday into Sunday as the low slowly drifts east across the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Wednesday...

Weather remains unsettled early next week as aforementioned low
continues to depart eastward, followed by a front on Tuesday. Cooler
and drier weather looks to take hold by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 AM Thursday...

For the most part, this period will generally accompany MVFR
CIGs with some minimal VIS restrictions under heavier rain. Fog
will affect some of the sites with VIS restrictions and low
stratus until 13Z (CRW/PKB/EKN). Thereafter, stratocu with rain
showers will be the theme for the day with very low probability
for thunderstorms, therefore elected to leave out mention in
the TAFs. Winds will be fairly light and easterly except for
down by BKW where winds will start to climb tonight in response
to the Hurricane Helena coming up from the south. LLWS will
certainly become a concern for Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of low CIGs will vary
somewhat from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 09/26/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    L    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
Brief, but repetitive periods of IFR conditions possible in
showers and storms throughout the week and into the weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ033.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JZ